How Many Times is Enough?

A curious thing happened during last Friday's card at Belmont. Among the splintered fields with main track only entrants abounding from four races being rained off the turf, there came the potential for one horse to become a beaten favorite...again.

This unlikely candidate numbered 15 in your program actually was coming off a year plus layoff and gunning for six straight loses as the favorite - amazingly four of these loses came at odds under a dollar. Allow me to repeat, this five-year-old son of Unbridled Song's had lost at odds of 80 cents on a dollar, 80 cents again, 90 cents and 20 cents. Then in his last start of 2009 he drifted all the way up to almost 2-1 as part of an entry, but the result was the same - defeat.

I wonder is this some sort of record? Karma induced defeat? High-powered connections of Darley and Albertrani just not knowing when to give up or give in? What I do know is that the public, the betting pool, has continually been fooled by this well-bred, good looking steed named Unbridled's Heart.

In his first start way back in May of 2008, he showed more than just heart. Unbridled's Heart blew away a decent field of maidens over a good racing surface going 1 1/16 miles. He won by double digits and posted a triple digit Beyer. Impressive to say the least. Since then this lightly raced horse ( 1 win, 2 seconds and 3 thirds in six lifetime starts) has broken poorly, just missed twice and gave it up after holding a clear lead on a slow-paced nine furlong race at the Spa.

So there he was sitting at 65 cents on a dollar in a four horse field, the only entrant there for the main track. My eyes lit up. Now here's a chance to cash, but with only three contenders to choose from, I didn't go heavy on a win ticket. I simply signaled eventual winner Mad for Smarty going off as second choice at almost 3-1, in a modest Pick 3. Unfortunately, I didn't get to the payoff as I missed on one of the three races in the sequence. Unbridled's Heart finished an OK second, but yet again didn't hit the winner's circle.

A few days later, it still makes me wonder if Unbridled's Heart will roll out as the betting choice, once again. Sure he's always in the money, but clearly he is a bet against on a win ticket. When will the public learn on this overbet underachiever? Or better yet, when will I cash on such a proposition? If you can't get off a now six-time beaten favorite, you should pick another hobby....

Playing Favorites

Usually playing short-priced horses too many times is a recipe for disaster. Since favorites only win 30-35% of the time, you're bound to lose most of the time. Maybe you'd lose more often searching for better odds, but the expectations of winning that comes with low odds will be enough to drive you nuts when you start to lose more often than you win.

That being said, my initial Handicapper's Corner post on Thorofan is all about playing the favorite, Secret Gypsy, in Delaware Park's Endine Stakes on Saturday. For more on my "supposed" insight just click away Thorofan, Thoroughbred Racing Fan Association, Inc.

Travers' Day Pick Four

Race 9 - Grade III Victory Ride Stakes for fillies

Beyondallboundarys– tactical speed and steady improvement in last three races, Amoss ain’t coming for nothing

Katy Now – now horse, ready to fire fresh on cut back in distance

Race 10 - Grade I Ballerina - wide open affair

Rightly So – gets the rail, off two excellent races, 2-for-2 at distance and fast works

Warbling – totally missed break in last and still ran well, should rate her back for one run

Jessica Is Back – was able to rate in last and got a rest before big time try here, grade one winner

Informed Decision – sprint champion working up to big score?

Qualia – what’s not to like, has finished first or second in all six of her races

Pretty Prolific – has the ability to close from back of pack if pace becomes too fast up front

Race 11 - Grade I King's Bishop for colts

D’Funnybone – five time stakes winner and four times seven furlong winner with two wins over the likely favorite Discreetly Mine (bounce candidate)

Bulldogger and Bank Merger are both stepping way up in class over impressive wins during their short careers, if either can win you get 5-1 or better

Race 12 - Travers' Stakes

Fly Down – should see a hot pace in front of him and has the ability to engulf the front runners with one strong move…the single

The $1 Pick Four Play: 7-9/1-6/3-5-6/8 for $36. Good luck with all your wagers!

Arlington All Stakes Pick 3 - Quickie

Quick and Easy

Secretariat

#1 Paddy O'Prado - has faced the best of his division on dirt and turf and is best on turf; single

Beverly D

All - since Tuscan Evening went down, the door is wide open here and I wouldn't be surprised if any of the ten entrants win

Million

Two ways to go: 1) Real cheap, singling #6 Gio Ponti or 2) toss in #9 Tazeez, who likely gets a loose lead and could make every pole a winning one - either way it's a cheap play 1/All/6-9 costs you $20.

Good luck with your wagers!

Saratoga Video Finally Completed - Enjoy!

A little more than a year in the making - actually the video footage sat on the shelf since August 2009 before I started editing this summer. I was hoping to have this ready by the Spa's opening weekend, but life, racing and betting got in the way.

I hope you enjoy this 7-minute plus video. Excuse some herky-jerky footage, as everything was shot hand-held without the use of a tripod.

Pick Four Saratoga Jim Dandy/Diana Day

Let's get right to it...

Race 8 - NY-Bred Maidens, 1 1/16 Turf

Simply put these races - most of the time - go to the right connections. That being said Chingachgook is an obvious pick. This son of Empire Maker has been knocking on the door for Graham Motion in his last two, sits in the garden spot for new jock Leparoux, who excels on the turf. No trainer is hotter than Chad Brown, picking up his fourth win yesterday from only eight starts. Atitlan has some decent turf pedigree and has been working steadily towards this unveiling. Look no further....

Race 9 - Diana - Grade 1 F&M 1 1/8 Turf

Wow! You won't see many Grade 1 fields as tight and talented as this one. Each entrant has a graded stakes win with Proviso, Phola and Forever Together having multiple Grade 1 victories. I see two ways go, using the three top-tier fillies or mare listed above or hitting the "All" button. Call me chicken, but the "All" button is where I'm going. Just as an argument can be made against the rest of field, let me make a case for: My Princess Jess (win over the track an only a neck and half away from Proviso in last); Dynaslew (has awoken in last three with new trainer Seth Bezel and has potential to wire field); Shared Account (back-to-back top notch efforts) and Maram (did I mention she is trained by Chad Brown?) Dismiss any of these at your own risk.

Race 10 - Jim Dandy - Grade II - Colts 1 1/8

A field of nine that lacks the star power of Monmouth's Haskell and as I see it, a much easier race to handicap. A Little Warm and Miner's Reserve put up two of the best Beyer speed figures of all three-year-olds in their one-two finish in an optional claimer at Deleware. I like A Little Warm more since he doesn't need the front as much as Miner's Reserve and there looks to be several others that want the front in here. The classiest of all here is probably Fly Down. Besides his steadied Louisiana Derby run, he's won two and just missed in the Belmont Stakes.

Race 11 - $25,000 Claiming, 3YO and Up, 1 1/16 Turf

The definition of a difficult handicapping race - six last out winners from the first eleven entrants...whew. If I get this far, the three that will be on my ticket are: Chromospere goes for mediocre jockey turned crazy good trainer Rudy Rodriguez. You simply have to include this one off Rodriguez's recent success! Ticondero is two for his last three and you might get a price due to his trainer and his shipping in from Churchill. Although with Leparoux up, he could end up the favorite. British Banker is my top choice even though you have to go back to February for his last win. Going from an allowance starter to this level may even be considered a class drop and by the way, Chad Brown trains....

For those keeping track, that's a $1 Pick Four of: 1-5/ALL/5-9/1-3-9 for $84

Off to the Spa

Tomorrow has come...off to Saratoga for the 16th straight year. I was hoping to have a 7-minute video on The Spa for your viewing pleasure, but it's only 90 percent done and I'm out of time...check back next week and it should be up. It's pretty good.

CCA Oaks - let's give two longer shots than even money favorite Devil May Care a long look.

• Connie and Michael has every right to improve in her sixth lifetime start and third start off the layoff. Looks to turn the tables against the top choice and has the tactical speed to do so.
• Acting Happy was absolutely determined to win the Black Eyed Susan in her last. Rick Dutrow brings her back off that race and scores 32 percent will such layoffs. If she is quick enough, she could give Devil May Care all kinds of problems, tracking just outside her flank.