Rooting Against Yourself

I'm sure I am not alone in this most self-depreciating of horse betting pastimes which includes:

• precious time spent handicapping 
• a bet planned
• a bet changed (usually my changes include betting less)
• the results of the bet coming in or about to come to in

It's during this "about to" stage when a few handicappers among us start this contrarian practice of actually rooting against a horse you should have bet, but for some reason left off your tickets. While this can and does happen in just one race, for me, over the course of the last two weeks, it has played out over the four-race sequence of the Early and Late Pick 4s at Saratoga. This allows for a special sense of dread that builds to a crescendo through at least 90-minutes and four races (if you're alive to the last race). By the final race of the bet left behind or the horse left off the ticket that was originally planned; the win that would have been begins to unfold, you hope just won't. 

On opening Saturday while in attendance at the Spa, I figured out a $48, 50-cent Early Pick 4. This would have been the most combinations for any Pick 4, I've ever played. Usually, to justify any Pick 4, I live by a rule of getting or betting one single in the sequence. This automatically keeps bets at or below the $48 mark I had planned three Saturdays ago. 

The problem I had with the bet a few Saturdays ago was the 96 combinations and the fact that it was about to eat almost half of my budget for the day. So....I removed two horses and changed another while getting the bet down to $30. 

I was out of it right off the bat on the bet I made because of one of the removals. With nothing to root for and too pissed off to bet anything else, I watched as the next two horses in the $48 bet won. I went for a walk and spent some time with the Mrs. at different parts of the track trying not to pay attention. 

I arrived back at our seats just in time to see the fifth race kick off with none of my horses starting in contention. As the majestic beasts narrowed toward the stretch, one of my originally "bet" horses hit the line a nose in front of 11 others. A moment I should have been relishing was wasted. The net result was that my $18 saved turned into $750 lost. I vowed never to bet again.

I played just once more that day - a miserable, swallow attempt at a Pick 6. 

My non-betting continued through the last two weeks until Sunday. With a day of rain in the Boston area, where I bet the world from my computer, I mapped out the Late Pick 4 at the Spa. It was to be 1-2-8-9/3/2-6-8/1-2-6-7 and would have cost me all of $24 for a 50-cent play. I balked. The 8 won at 7-1, the 3 romped as the single at 9-5, the 6 won at 17-1 beating the chalk by a nose, and I was left looking at four, probable Pick 4 payouts ranging from $3,000 to $1,000.

As we humans are apt to do - I started to think that my change in play two weeks ago and my non-play yesterday were more than just the shortsightedness of part-time handicapper. I started to believe them to be signs from God. In this relative, narcissistic view, The Great Almighty just wants me to stop doing this thing I love to do and move onto to something else more productive. (As if He doesn't have bigger matters to worry about).  As I was siding with the omens in front of me, my cloud of doom seemed quite large and ready to rain down on me. Alive to four in the final leg - a bettor's dream or in this case nightmare.

Thankfully, I think, none of my four choices hit the line first. I sighed relief. I'm not sure why, but I did. Because isn't the point of all this that we do with figures, forms and tips, is win? Rooting for a loss feels like a loser's thing to do. I think I have to put up, shut up or just be more choosy with my bets. I think.

Whitney Stakes Pick 4

My Jim Dandy Stakes Pick 4 was so bad (not one winner in the sequence) that I can't let such poor picking stand on my blog. Quick and dirty with little explanation, my Whitney Stakes Pick 4 follows:

Race 8 - a restricted affair going one mile on the turf looks more like a graded stakes race and has many stakes winners among the field. #1 Trix in the City has the potential to take them all the way around at a price. #5 Evading Template brings intentional flair to the event with Group 2 and 3 placings among her 11 starts across the ocean and Chad Brown takes up her training for the Spa debut. #9 Deluxe is another foreign import for the juggernaut, Juddmonte Farms, who placed in a Group 1 event last year.

Race 9 - The Grade 1 Test promises to be a handicapping test if you're not singling #6 Turbulent Descent - a four-time stakes winner including two Grade 1 scores. #2 American Lady has to be included due to trainer Bob Baffert's recent, red-hot hand. #3 Roman Treasure's jockey-trainer connections have scored at better than 50% the last two years and you can draw a line through her last race in which she stumbled out of the gate when beaten by several of these. #8 Her Smile, sure leave trainer Todd Pletcher off your ticket, I double-dog dare you. #9 Salty Strike gets on just in case a hot and contested pace ensues and no one is left to pick up the pieces.

Race 10 - For more about my Whitney analysis see my Thorofan piece. But like the Test you can choose  to either spread far and wide or go with a single. I going with the later, singling Morning Line.

Race 11 is a wide open NY state breed race going 7 furlongs. 7 panels are usually tough races to handicap for the humans and tough races to win for the equines. I'm gong with three entrants that have experience going seven furlongs or a bit longer. They are #3 Seek to Destroy, #11 Southbeach Sandy and #12 Wee Freudian - who should get a bit look adding blinkers for the first time; a move trainer Richard Schosberg has won with 25% of the time the last two years.

So for a 50-cent base bet, my ticket looks like this 1-5-9/2-3-6-8-9/3/3-11-12 for $22.50.

Good luck with all your wagers!

Jim Dandy 50-Cent Pick 4

So the 50-cent Pick Four has finally made it to NYRA, more specifically, Saratoga. So what's the difference between a 50-cent base bet versus a $1 - a lot. For me, this means I can break more own steadfast rule on Pick 4s - I don't need to single. 50-cents also means you can spread a lot farther in all directions, if you think a longshot or two can crack the sequence. I had a $96 Pick 4 based on a dollar (something I would never play) last Saturday that was knocked down to $48 with just the 50-cent base investment. The return was still a respectable $750 with two double-digit longshots coming in. (Don't ask why I didn't make the play even though I was on track and had the cash.)

So this brings us to this afternoon with a Pick 4 surrounded by two graded, one ungraded stakes races and with a beaten claiming race on the grass.  The strategy is to spread around using the 50-cent bet, hoping again, that a couple of double-digit finishes are in the cards.

Without further ado the Late Pick 4:

The Hattie Moseley for three year old fillies going a mile on the grass looks wide open. The two classy fillies on paper are Parting Words and Sassy's Dream (who are both at juicy odds) based upon facing the most stakes company and showing a good account of themselves. A grade two second place finish can certainly translate to a win at $75,000. For the bigger names and shorter prices - Juddmonte Farms sends Starformer stateside and Todd Pletcher has Artisanal breaking from the outside.

The Grade I Diana for fillies and mares going 1 1/ 8 miles on the grass is always a good race and this year's edition looks ultracompetitive, again, good for odds and playing. You should never look the other way when a horse reels off four wins in a row like Unbridled Humor has done to start her career. She steps up her, but why not a win? Aruna and Aviate look to be knocking on the door for a grade one win and both have all the right connections, which comes with lower prices that should include on your ticket. Romacaca has done everything right in her last four wins and her trainer Nick Canani does not ship without reason. At 15-1, she's the one you hope lands on top and gives some real value to the ticket.

A case can be made for all Jim Dandy entrants but I'm narrowing it down to Dominus who you should respect, Scotus who could surprise and Alternation who seems ready to explode on the scene.

The final race comes down to two for me - Free Brave, the favorite, and Saints Alive, a bomb. Got to do yard work, see ya!

The play at 50-cents is 3-5-8-10/1-6-7/2-4-7/2-10 for $48. Good luck with your plays.

Saratoga's Opening Weekend

After a not-so-brief hiatus, I am back to blog - just a little bit. I'll start by reposting the video I created last year on Saratoga. Hope you enjoy!

I'll be at the Spa for opening weekend and may attempt a mobile blog post. This will be my 17th straight year making the trip from Boston to the August (and now late July) Place to Be.

Preakness 136 Epilogue

As I sit in my living room - watching Sox-Cubs - on Sunday night, I thought I'd provide some passing thoughts on my first and likely only Preakness experience.

• First, hats off to my wife - of now 14 years - for agreeing to go to the Preakness to celebrate our wedding anniversary. C'mon it doesn't get better than that! 
• Upon being shuttled into Pimlico, I  was reminded of coming into Atlanta in 1996 to see the Olympic Track and Field Trials some 15 years ago. In both cases, I was among mostly white patrons/fans being transported through poor, primarily African American neighborhoods to sit for an event before being bused out again. There was no Siro's, Cask N' Flagon (an old Fenway haunt) or any tavern, restaurant or place that 102,000 fans were going to stop and patronize on Saturday night.
• Our third floor grandstand seats were excellent. We sat just a hundred yards from the finish line and directly up from where Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man and Animal Kingdom were saddled up for the Preakness. My wife, our cousins and I also occupied seats 8-11 and 9, 10, and 11 also belonged to the three horses mentioned above. I thought with karma like that, some combination of a  9-10-11 finish was in the cards, so I played a $5 trifecta box with those numbers. 
• I took a beating most of the day, while the Mrs. hit a few modest exactas. I was alive with Animal Kingdom in a Pick 4, threw down $50 on him to win and had him in several other superfecta and trifectas. My best score on the day was mistakenly betting $5 to win on Shackleford. 
• The A/C was modest inside the grandstand and getting outside was almost impossible, due to over zealous ushers. (Every seat location was color-coded and if you had the wrong code you were quickly sent away.) If you are willing to take a chance and attend yourself, try the outside grandstand seats, as I felt these seats gave the best view, were shaded most of the day and even offered some protection if it were to rain.
• It was good to meet some of my blogger friends - Geno from Equispace and Steve from WirePlayers - in person. Just as personable and knowledgeable in the flesh as they are in cyberspace. An interesting and diverse community, we, Thoroughbred bloggers are. 
• Thanks also to mom for sending some much needed wagering funds our way for an anniversary gift, ensuring that we could wager to our hearts content. 
• Below are some pictures from the Preakness...

 The starting gate during the undercard

 Not a cupcake top, but one of the many decorative hats

 Here I am trying to find the Bruins game in an unoccupied horseman's box in front of our seats.

 Our view of Animal Kingdom saddling up.

 Astrology walks by...

Shackleford before he heated up and won...

Animal Kingdom walks by...

 Me and the Mrs...

Animal Kingdom getting a much needed bath afterwards. 

Shackleford walks off his Preakness win before entering the winner's circle.

Preakness Update

Betting away at Pimlico -not much success. I am alive in a Pick 4. I need 4,5 or 6 in race 11 and Animal Kingdom to cash.

Preakness Field and Early Pick

A quickie look at the 136th Preakness field, as I get ready to make my way down to Balitmore...

• Astrology - never out of the money in seven lifetime starts; likely on the board finish
• Norman Asbjornson - closed to fourth into what now looks like a weak Wood Memorial
• King Congie - nice story behind his name; I'll be routing for him, but passing on a wager
• Flashpoint - adds to a projected quick pace; probably won't be around for the finish
• Shackleford - can control slow paces like in FL and Kentucky Derbies, but won't have such a luxury this time around
• Sway Away - has had troubled rank/trips and still qualifies for a non-winners of one allowance
• Midnight Interlude - Baffert changes rider to Garcia again, but unlikely first place finish
• Dance City - thanks for the quick pace
• Mucho Macho Man - Derby traffic and some uncertainty from jock may have cost him a second place finish
• Dialed In - just running for chance at big bonus or ready for real rebound?
• Animal Kingdom - real deal and gets even better pace scenario to run at 
• Isn't He Perfect - No.
• Concealed Identity - home boy tries for the big score
• Mr. Commons - not sure he'll get the distance and far post doesn't help

My early pick is as simple as 8-9-10 or the Derby Boys to come back better than the rest