Time, Performance and Money...Kentucky Derby 138

We now find ourselves less than eight weeks away from Derby Day and the clock is ticking in more ways than one.

1. Time - The horses that have caught your attention and got you dreaming of the Kentucky Derby have already performed this calendar year...and they have done so in stakes company...on dirt...and around two turns. Sorry sprints, allowance affairs and turf-to-dirt plans this late the game, I'm just not buying it. And by the way, two-year-old form is just that - two-year-old form.
2. Performance - If they ain't crossing the finish line first, second, third or a troubled, fourth, 50-some-odd days of training is not going to magically change their prospects, especially going 10 furlongs with 19 foes along for the charge and 150,000 screaming fans.
3. Money - Graded stakes earnings are always on the minds of human connections. Horses sitting above the $200,000 mark (and there are nine of them) can safely assume a May 5, Churchill start, if they want it. This means up to and probably more than 11 spots are up for grabs and with three $1 million, one $800,000 and one $750,000 races, there promises to be at least a few jumping up the stakes earnings ladder. Hold onto your hat with a few like, I'll Have Another, Fed Biz, Gemologist and Take Charge Indy taking just one big shot at earning the necessary cash. How much will be necessary to make the Derby starting gate? I say it will be close to, if not more, than $250,000.

While Bob Baffert can live with the two duds Liaison (currently sixth on the graded stakes earnings list with $393,000) has tossed, he does not have the same luxury with Fed Biz ($0) and Bodemeister ($60,000). Baffert's success with three-years-olds is so storied, he's likely to get more than just Liaison to Louisville. Most counterparts, including Todd Pletcher, aren't so blessed or lucky.

So please fasten your seatbelt, move your seat to the upright position and place all bags in the overhead compartment because the ride's going to get bumpy for most and more than one seat cushion will need to be turned into a flotation device.

You Made a Play in Kentucky Derby Future Pool Wager:Now What?

Unless you played the Kentucky Derby Future Pool #1just for fun - which is really the only way to play 12 weeks away from the big dance - here are your chances to cash as I see it.

Smart money = take a shot at entries that already have enough graded earnings to make the Derby gate or are on the verge of guaranteeing their shot with just a few more graded stakes bucks. These entries include: Hansen (26-1) , Union Rags (7-1), Sabercat (34-1), Creative Cause (17-1), Liaison (56-1), Dullahan (40-1), Algorithms (12-1). Unless any of these get hurt, they'll go on May 5 giving their backers something to route for at very nice prices. Others likely to make it: Alpha (19-1) with $180,000 and light competition in New York and Rousing Sermon (71-1) just needing to beat a handful of others in typical small-field Left Coast Derby preps. All others are a crap shoot, pure and simple.

Some will need a graded stakes win or at least two top-three finishes to make it to Louisville, which include zero stakes dollars won by El Padrino (20-1), Fed Biz (21-1), Junebugred (58-1), Midnight Transfer (67-1) and Discreet Dancer (30-1). All have won in allowance company or ungraded stakes, but have yet to make a stakes placing splash. These three-years-olds have a very short window to make up a lot of ground and maybe one or two will...then, again, maybe not.

The middle of the pack are those that just may have peaked at two, made a minor showing this year and just maybe will be here and gone by the end of the month: Take Charge Indy (42-1), Empire Way (33-1), Ever So Lucky (55-1), Gemologist (22-1) and Longview Drive (141-1).

Finally, there are the three that got into Pool 1 by winning the first of the major prep races: Out of Bounds (23-1) winning the Grade 3 Sham Stakes, Mr. Bowling (85-1) winning the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes and Battle Hardened (46-1) winning the Grade 3 Sam Davis. Can they continue their winning ways? We'll see, but I say it's doubtful that any of these make it to the first Saturday in May.

Of course there's "All Others" that came in at 3-2. If you had $5,000 to invest with the likelihood of a 150% return, you'd take it. As I touted all week this was the bet to make, which means of course I didn't make it. Who did I take?

First off, I took the longest shot on the board Longview Drive. Why? He did all the dirty work in the Sham by setting a very fast pace at :22.66, :45.89, 1:09.78, yet still held well to finish third only a length behind the top two finishers. He's got stamina on top with Pulpit and on bottom with a mare out of Wild Again - winner of the initial Breeder's Cup Classic. If he can rate in the Southwest Stakes, he could be very dangerous and live. And if you're taking a future bet, the longest shot is the place to go.

My other choice was Fed Biz, an easy one-turn mile allowance winner who is likely to start next in the San Felipe Stakes. Sired by Giant's Causeway and like Longview Drive is out of a Wild Again mare. Following his almost 6-length win, jockey Rafael Bejarano claimed that Fed Biz was his Derby horse - heady stuff for a February win.