A Leg Up: The Factor; Rebel Stakes

Saturday, March 19, 2011

Fear The Factor in The Rebel

Really, Bob Baffert shipping in with an improving 3-year-old, shouldn't that be enough to capture our attention? Sure The Factor will be the favorite in what, at first look, appears to be a wide open field. I say, the field is widely unpredictable, but only when considering who will finish second and third.

Here are the reasons to back The Factor:

Besides maiden winner, Saratoga Red, there is absolutely no speed to contend with The Factor. Even if Saratoga Red goes with The Factor, he'll probably stop after a half while facing winners for the first time.
The Factor is liable to get away with fractions of :24, :48 and 1:11 - if he is loose, as I suspect, then he is gone.
Baffert believes in his little horse. If you look at the works leading up to today's start - two six furlong jobs (bullets, mind you) - he's trying to build a bottom into The Factor. Baffert is giving the horse every right to improve and show he can go two-turns. I don't think 1 1/16 miles is outside his ability. Watch the jog out after the wire in San Vincente - The Factor never lets Sway Away get by him.

My suggestion: Play a trifecta or superfecta key wheel with The Factor on top of Archarcharch, Alternation, J P's Gusto, Caleb's Posse and Elite Alex. Six bucks for a 10-cent super key wheel - why not?

Let me 'splain

For those not totally immersed in the Thoroughbred horse racing world, trainers give "a leg up" to the jockeys contracted to ride their horses.

You may remember giving your friend ten fingers - both hands clasped together to be used as a stepping stool or launching pad - in order to reach a tree branch, jump a fence or to be vaulted into a swimming pool. In the real world "a leg up," may mean gaining a foothold into a competitive marketplace or receiving much needed help or advice from friend.

It is in this spirit of friendship both the childhood kind and the kind formed trackside that I launch and hopefully maintain this blog. In the midst of it all, maybe you'll find an advantageous betting angle or learn about a new jockey on top a hot horse. One can only hope.

I am no expert in blogging nor do I pretend to be a horse racing expert (betting or conditioning). Just a fan with probably too much to say. But if you're willing to read, I'm willing to write.