Holy Bull is Back!

After a one-year experiment, the Holy Bull is back where it belongs as the first stakes in a series leading toward the Florida Derby - the Fountain of Youth makes up the middle leg.

This year the field looks stacked and depending on tomorrow's result, Gulfstream may hold all the cards for Derby Day. While the Fair Grounds' LeComte looks like a N1X Allowance, the Holy Bull has six stakes-placed colts including a bellwether 100 Beyer horse and favorite Jackson Bend. Here's what the favorite and others bring to the table:

• Jackson Bend - besides the gaudy speed figure, he's also won five straight and been purchased by perennial Triple Crown hopeful owner, Robert LaPenta
• Homeboykris - the lone Grade I winner in the field at the Holy Bull distance of a mile
• Thank U Phillippe - finished second, a 1/16 of a mile behind Buddy's Saint in Grade II Nashua Stakes
• Piscitelli - for a brief moment looked like 50-1 upset winner of Juvenile, but held strong less than a length behind the other long shot, Vale of York
• William's Kitten - Ramsey, Marker, Leparoux ride their Derby hopeful after a decent second in Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club
• Aikenite - a Pletcher-trained hopeful got lots of action finishing fifth in Juvenile and makes his first start of his three-year-old season

Beyond these six there's the Anthony Dutrow-trained Winslow Homer, who in his last start exploded for a 12 and 1/2 length allowance win. The field is stacked and the yes, the Derby race is on....

Ready for One More; Possibly Two

Today's Lexington Stakes will probably give us at least one more Derby starter, possibly two.

If anyone but Square Eddie wins the Lexington, it most likely means one more starter in the Derby field since the winner's share is $186,00. Square Eddie has enough graded stakes earnings to get in, so if he wins, it doesn't change anything on the Derby earnings list. But if he finishes a strong second than we'll probably see him and whoever ends up winning in Derby starting gate. If Square Eddie disappoints than it's doubtful he starts two weeks from now. 

There's at least four decent long shots that could win the Lexington:

• Jeranimo (12-1) has a chance to get in the Derby with a second place finish and finished just 2 1/4 lengths behind Pioneerof the Nile in San Felipe.
• Omniscient (6-1) three straight Beyer improvements (an angle I always like to play) and skipped through the mud in last on the lead.
• Pitched Perfectly  (15-1) gets Tagg first time and went fast in last at Big A.
• Masala (6-1) drilled two works back and gets blinkers for Pletcher who scores at 25% with first blinkers.

Less Than Full???

For the first time since 2004 it looks like the Kentucky Derby will have less than a full field of 20. Here's why:

• Mafaaz - the win-and-in Kempton Challenge winner ran less than stellar in his American debut finishing a well beaten eighth in the Blue Grass. His connections wanted a good showing to move onto the Derby, so he should be out.
  
• Regal Ransom or Desert Party - the sheiks that own Shadwell Stable have said that only one of their two eligible starters will go forward to Churchill Downs...stay tuned.
• Old Fashioned - the early book favorite is out with an injury.
• Square Eddie, Win Willy, Giant Oak, Charitable Man, Theregoesjojo and Flying Pirate - none of these really belong based upon recent form. I'm hoping that at least half of the connections will forgo Derby Fever and do the sensible thing by holding back young horses that aren't talented enough for the Derby. My guess is that Win Willy and Giant Oak will go forward and the rest will stay home on May 2.
• Mr. Hotstuff, Join in the Dance, Summer Bird and Massone - all qualify for a "non-winners of one" allowance condition, not exactly Derby material.

This is good news for phenom, Dunkirk, who most likely gets in and will go off as second or third choice. With front-runner Old Fashioned now out of the race the connections for the fabulous filly, Rachel Alexandra may actually take a shot at the Derby. Rachel Alexandra has absolutely destroyed the last two graded-stakes field she's faced, and she uses her early speed to do so. Like it or not, she's a natural fit for the Derby. 

Even if Rachel Alexandra gets in, I see the field at 17 at most. For more thoughts see graded earnings list below.

1. Regal Ransom ($1,200,000) Spoiled stablemate's party by winning in Dubai   
   
2. Pioneerof the Nile ($1,193,250) Has beaten four on this list; deserves respect
3. I Want Revenge ($774,000) Showed Derby toughness in spectacular Wood win
   
4. Papa Clem ($760,000) Favorable pace helped Arkansas win
   
5. Square Eddie ($756,000) Has not returned to 2-year-old form
   
6. Quality Road ($600,000) Tough nut; has minor injury to overcome
   
7. General Quarters ($595,000) Does Blue Grass win mean anything?
   
8. Friesan Fire ($570,465) Training up after Bayou wins
   
9. Old Fashioned ($530,000) Hurt
   
10. Desert Party ($491,667) Handed loss at less than even money by Regal Ransom
    
11. Musket Man ($485,000) Two straight graded stakes wins; maybe for real
    
12. Terrain ($448,330) Enough money to get in, but that's all
    
13. Hold Me Back ($438,000) Synthetic surface specialist will take lots of money
    
14. West Side Bernie ($385,160) Either live long shot or no-show
    
15. Chocolate Candy ($370,000) Steady, but is that enough?
    
16. Win Willy ($230,000) Overrated 
    
17. Giant Oak ($169,256) Always an excuse and never enough to win
    
18. Dunkirk ($150,000) Monster in the making will make the gate
    
19. Charitable Man ($150,000) One prep strategy didn't work
    
20. Theregoesjojo ($133,000) Not enough
    
21. Flying Pirate ($124,000) Who?
    
22. Massone ($115,000) Not yet nominated
    
23. Mr. Hot Stuff ($114,000) Maiden win and that's it
    
24. Summer Bird ($100,000) See above 
    
25. Join in the Dance ($90,000) If other defections occur Pletcher has rabbit for Dunkirk
    

Keenland All Stakes Pick Four

Hey for a 50-cent minimum, why not try the Keenland All Stakes Pick Four? Here's my little ticket:

Leg one (Race 6), Shakertown Stakes: At 5 1/2 furlongs, you better toss a few in the mix. I'm going with three: Hewitts (10-1 ML) and Mr. Nightlinger (5-2) to both go to the front. I'm thinking one of them may hold on, but if not Hero's Reward (5-1) may just pick up all the pieces. Big question: Will Nightlinger fire off six-month layoff?

Leg two, Commonwealth Stakes: Seven furlongs is a tricky distance, so you need to have some success at the distance or at least have lead at seven furlongs when traveling farther. There's five good choices out of the eight listed, but I'm going with Eternal Star (9-2) and Ravalo (5-1). I think one of these two will strike the front and not look back. I'm banking on two things here, that my top choices won't get in a speed duel and Rebellion will not fire back to his '08 form when winning this race. 

Leg three, Jenny Wiley Stakes: I'm thinking all class here with Female Turf Champion, Forever Together (even) and hard-knocker Backseat Rhythm (5-1). Those looking to spoil this leg are the ever-capable, I Lost My Choo and Rutherienne, the former scares me more.

Final leg, Blue Grass Stakes: You can make a case for just about every horse in the field. Hey, if you've got the money, hit the all button in this leg. For me, I'm banking on what, former jockey and current horse racing analyst, Gary Stevens said about Keenland's track - that it's playing more like the old dirt surface, favoring early speed. As a result, I go with Patena (10-1), Join in the Dance (10-1) and Massone (12-1), all who will either be on or close to the lead. 

For a buck, it's a $36 or half that at $18 for 50 cents.

Arkansas Derby/Blue Grass

Arkansas Derby will either show Old Fashioned getting back to his winning ways or another bomb arriving on the Derby Road. 

Old Fashioned has yet to run back to his 2-year-old form (according to Beyer numbers), which is not a good sign. Leg weary late in Rebel, the guess here is that new jock rates behind Papa Clem attempting  to reserve Old Fashioned's fortunes. I give him a 50/50 chance at winning. 

Win Willy is set to bounce, period. 

Danger to Society is trained by Rick Dutrow Jr. and love him or hate him his first-time with a horse win percentage is over 30 percent. That alone gives this entry a chance, so I will.

Among the bombs that might beat Old Fashioned yet again, I like these two

• Ziegfeld - first time blinkers for lightly raced colt
• Captain Cherokee - half to Midnight Lute

The Blue Grass is a dart board handicapping event. I see no one as a standout. Besides these tosses - Cliffy's Future, Loch Dubh and General Quarters - anyone of the eight remaining runners has a chance. According to Gary Stevens on HRTV's Pursuit of the Crown, Keenland is holding up speed. If this is true, go with Join in the Dance.

BIG Derby Prep Saturday

With four Derby preps in two hours, there's a lot to look forward to on Saturday. Let's not waste any time and cut to the chase.

The San Felipe appears to be a walkover for Pioneerof the Nile. With the defections of Papa Cleam (Louisiana Derby), I Want Revenge (monster win in Gotham) and Stardom Bound (just not good enough), it's down to Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse on the Left Coast. Since they won't met until the Santa Anita Derby, the San Felipe goes to Pioneerof the Nile.

While his competition is a bit stiffer at Oaklawn, Old Fashioned looks to keep on track as the pre-Derby favorite with a win in the Rebel Stakes. Trainer Larry Jones could possibly win here and at the Fair Grounds (more on that a bit later in this post) today. Silver City returns and draws outside Old Fashioned along with late comer Poltergeist. Two newcomers could make some noise - two-time, two-turn winner Wise Kid and half brother to Sprint Champion Midnight Lute, Captain Cherokee. Sure the breeding and bro' don't scream nine furlongs, but Bob Baffert maintained that Lute could have covered a route of ground without constant displaced palate problems. 

General Quarters tries to prove his Sam Davis win wasn't a fluke in the Tampa Bay Derby. His main rivals look to be, Bears Rocket who held nicely after sitting up on the contested fractions in the Holy Bull and Hello Broadway who stretches out to turn turns off a second place finish in the Hutchenson.

The most intriguing race from both a fan and handicapping perspectives is the Grade II Louisiana Derby. For my money, the largest parade of contenders will go postward, and if I'm right this will end up being a key Derby race. Here's why:

• There are no "distance questions" based on either breeding or experience at two turns 
• It would not be a surprise if anyone of six horses has a break out performance and earns a 100 Beyer speed figure or better
• Coast-to-coast it has drawn all the biggest jocks, except Gomez, for a specific reason -  a chance to ride a live mount on Derby Day. OK the other graded stakes races on the Fair Grounds card was another draw
• I can't help but feel Friesan Fire is very good, not great and susceptible to being beaten as the chalk

I'm routing for in this order (based upon my Road to the Roses Stable) Patena, Giant Oak and Flying Pegasus. For betting purposes I'll take the same three in Pick 3s and exacta box bets. Enjoy the weekend's racing. I know I will.

Derby Sorting in FOY and Sham

Two Derby preps bring two fields of 12 together. I know one thing both races will show - the 20 or so horses that don't have the chops to become the next Derby champ. 

Check the other blogs for deep analysis. I won't bother with such probing diagnosis here because the Fountain of Youth is too tough to single a winner out and the Sham really doesn't show any real competition for The Pamplemousse. 

The Fountain of Youth has several horses with limited experience, but with very fast Beyer speed figures:

• Notonthesamepage - 114 Beyer winning the Spectacular Bid Stakes
• Capt. Candyman - 101 in winning the Grade II Hutcheson
• Taqarub - 103 in winning Winkfield Stakes
• This Ones for Phil - 116 in winning the Sunshine Millions Dash

The problem, all of the above speed figures were earned in  sprints - nothing beyond 7 furlongs.

  

My Road to the Roses stable has Notonthesamepage, so I'll be routing for him, and he just might have a chance if the horses to his outside encounter some trouble into the first turn. The rail and the lead are two advantageous positions to hold at Gulfstream.

If I bet on the race (and I probably will include at least four horses in my pick 3s and 4s), I'm lookng for Theregoesjojo and Beethoven  to pick up the pieces if a three- or four-way speed duel presents itself. 

In the Sham,  with just one graded stakes winner entered, even horses coming off a maiden special win have lined up with a chance to earn a Derby post. While there is no such thing as a sure thing in horse racing, it might take The Pamplemousse to fall down to lose the Sham. There is no other proven front-runner and every Tom, Dick and Harry just seem to be taking a shot here. If he is anywhere around even money, The Pamplemousse is a steal. 

Equation for Derby Contender

$3.7 million purchase price + sired by Unbridled Song + out of an A.P. Indy mare + Todd Pletcher-trained + owned in partnership with Michael Tabor + single day, cross-country flight for rider Garret Gomez + troubled, six-wide trip for win + 2-for-2 record = Kentucky Derby contender. 

His name is Dunkirk - one of 378 "Other Than" entries from Kentucky Derby Future Pool #1 that will be heard from before and even possibly during the first Saturday in May. Dunkirk will attempt to follow the road left by last year's Derby champ (Big Brown), taking on all competitors in the Grade I Florida Derby after two consecutive wins to start racing career.

Old Fashioned Stays Perfect in Southwest

Despite a 71-day layoff and sitting off fast early fractions, Old Fashioned won his three-year-old debut in workman-like, well, fashion, defeating 10 overmatched foes at Oaklawn Park on Monday afternoon. Returning 50 cents on a dollar, Old Fashioned, covered the stretch-shortened mile course in 1:37.41.

With the win, Old Fashioned is a perfect four-for-four and a two-time graded stakes winner. At this point, the one chink in his formidable armor, is the slow final quarter mile time of 26 seconds on Monday. While dirt racing usually results in a slower final quarter mile compared to the first, quarter times of the Southwest were increasing slow - 22.5, 23.5, 25, and 26 (approximate times). In a bottom-level claiming race at 1 1/16 miles prior to Southwest, the 3/4 to 1 mile spilt time was a comparable 26 seconds. Oaklawn also appeared to favor those running at or the near the front of the pack.

Unless he takes a misstep in his tour-de-course, Old Fashioned is likely to exit Arkansas (whether he goes in both the Rebel and Arkansas Derby or just the Derby), as the Kentucky Derby favorite. It is not an unfavorable route for Derby contenders in recent years - Afleet Alex and Curlin both finished third at Kentucky, while the unfortunate Eight Belles finished second last year. And Smarty Jones connected Arkansas to Kentucky Derby winner dots in 2004 on his way to failed Triple Crown attempt. 

The story most likely to grab the front page headlines is that of Old Fashioned's trainer, Larry Jones. A self-made trainer, who became caught in the cross-hairs of  the 24/7 media cycle and the nonsensical PETA protests following the horrific fall of Eight Belles, Jones does not delight in the spotlight. He contemplated retirement last year and will find himself as a most uncomfortable favorite.

Triple Crown threats listed and tested

The list for Triple Crown nominees came out this past weekend. No red carpet, $10,000 dresses or enough makeup to patch a hole in your wall - just 401 hopefuls. While other award shows disappoint, the road to the Kentucky Derby is based a horse's talent and earnings, which typically go hand and hand. (In Hollywood, gross revenue isn't naturally tied to talent, but simply what's hot at a particular time of year. But, I must admit in a few cases an undeserving, lucky and hot horse or two makes it to Churchill's starting gate the first Saturday in May).

With just 20 spots open for the Derby (14 for the Preakness and 14 more for the Belmont) there'll be lots of siphoning of the Thoroughbred talent pool before May rolls around. So just around 10% of those nominated will actually start a Triple Crown race.

You may think, why are so many owners willing to nominate a horse that is more likely ready for an bottom level allowance race than Derby or Triple Crown greatness? Well, it's only $600 to enter early and the price goes up 10 times to $6,000, if you wait another month. Even millionaire owners can do that kind of math. 

So of the 401 horses awaiting their chance at history, quite a few received some much needed seasoning by racing this past weekend. The three major (OK two major and one minor) contests for colts were run in New York, California and Louisiana and here were the results:

• Haynesfield - won in what turned into a public workout over five overmatched opponents at Aqueduct's Whirlway Stakes. He paid $2.90 to win. A minor award in a minor stakes.
• Pioneerof the Nile (that is not a typo) - took the Bob Lewis Stakes with an emphatic late run after having some traffic trouble entering the stretch. He paid $5.40. He galloped out like he'd want to race the Derby's 1 1/4 mile distance.
• Friesan Fire - encountered similar traffic trouble in the Risen Star but made it two-for-two at the Fair Grounds. He provided a $7.60 return. I like him, don't love him.

While the boys were duking it out, a filly stole some of their thunder and headlines. Following her fourth consecutive Grade I victory in the Las Virgenes on Saturday, Stardom Bound's connections announced that their recently purchased two-year-old champion filly will race against the boys in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4. Of course Stardom Bound's new owners, IEAH Stables, know something about purchasing Kentucky Derby Champions - Big Brown anyone? A filly taking on the boys is big news, especially after Eight Belles' fatal attempt last year. Let's hope for a better ending to Stardom Bound's date with destiny.

While the winners are setting their pre-Derby plates with much needed earnings, some of last weekend's losers will have something to say down the road:

• Giant Oak - My Risen Star pick had to put on the brakes in extremely tight quarters, swung five and then seven wide to make a run at Friesan Fire, finishing a game fifth.
• Flying Pegasus - Another Risen Star starter I liked a lot finished a game second in going two turns for the first time after a five-month layoff. 

Later this week...my thoughts on Churchill Down's fantasy game Road to the Roses.