The Draw and What It Means

The Derby draw had a few surprises with first and second choices, Lookin at Lucky and Sidney's Candy drawing posts one and twenty, respectively. To me, this means you need to find your winners somewhere else.

The problem with the rail is that 18 colts and a filly will tend to come crashing down upon the rail as they break from Churchill's chute and go by the grandstand for the first time. This means a horse and rider must go immediately to establish a racing position one or two away from the rail ahead of everyone else or have to drop back and wait to make a run through traffic. I love Garret Gomez, but I would feel more comfortable with Calvin Borel up against Churchill's rail. Another problem is Lookin at Lucky will load first, will be waiting a while in the Churchill gate and may not break all that alertly.

The problem with the far outside post is that you have 19 other horses inside you working for position and horse and rider must go to establish position somewhere in the middle of the track. Once the rider, in this case Joe Talamo aboard Sidney's Candy, pushes his steed, the horse may not be able to relax and could go through a sub-23 first quarter, which in turn could lead to a sub-46 second half, which would mean whoever is on the lead will be toast. While Big Brown had no trouble two years ago negogiating some quick fractions, he did so against substandard competition. This year's group is more closely stacked together with several speed horses willing to vie for or take the lead - Super Saver (post 4), Line of David (post 5) American Lion (post 7), Devil May Care (post 11), Conveyance (post 12) and Discreetly Mine (post 15) all break inside Sidney's Candy.

Even if it's just Conveyance going alone to the front, rider Martin Garcia could stay in the four-path and force Sideny's Candy wide on the first turn. Of course one, two or all seven could go for the front leaving Sidney's Candy wide or forcing him to rate - something he's yet to do.

If you like either or both Luckin at Lucky and/or Sidney's Candy, you'll have to swallow these poor posts and hope for racing's best luck around both turns. While Big Brown was the first Derby champ to win from the grandstand, it's been a long time since the one-hole produced a winner. In fact in the last 21 runnings, there have been just two fourth place finishers (Jazil and Limehouse) and one third place finisher (Risen Star) coming from the one post.

Looking at the post position draw, I'd have to say my top five choices in no particular order are Super Saver (4), Lookin at Lucky (1), Ice Box (2), Conveyance (12) and Mission Impazible (14). More on these choices to follow either Thursday or Friday in my final Channeling of the Kentucky Derby.

Impressions

To quickly sum up this weekend's preps we saw a monster unleashed, another stopped in his tracks and finally, a roar of redemption.

The monster is of course, Eskendereya who won the Wood Memorial in what looked like a public workout. Yes, it was visually impressive (the new race day buzz word of 2010) and under nothing more than a statuesque hand ride by Johnny V. But before we annotate him the next Triple Crown champ let's remember he's beat a horse with distance limitations and questionable breeding in Jackson Bend twice and two pretty weak fields back-to-back. I'm not completely sold on his eventual favoritism.

Can't a guy catch a break? In his last three races Lookin at Lucky has been parked in the grandstands (Breeders Cup Juvenile), was forced into traffic and clipped heals (Rebel) and yesterday forced into the rail by a jock going nowhere on a 50-1 looking for vengeance (Santa Anita Derby). Despite it all, he has been nipped by a nose, then nipped back by the same nose before finishing an honorable third yesterday. He exudes class and has been battle-tested - a must for any Derby contender and likely co-favorite. For me, Lookin at Lucky gets better grades than Eskendereya from yesterday and will likely be my key horse in all Derby wagers. You should also realize trainer Bob Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby after Santa Anita loses - twice.

And yes, American Lion came back to his earlier form and came home a winner in the Illinois Derby. What this means, I'm not sure, but he probably will add to a much anticipated and most likely contested pace in this year's Derby.

When will horse racing get it right?

Yesterday was a special and unique day in Thoroughbred horse racing. And the only people who knew it were hard core fans trackside across the country, online handicappers (bloggers included) or someone who just happened to see Zenyatta win while looking for the latest college hoop score on Sports Center on Saturday.

Why so special?

1. Reigning and historic Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra made her much anticipated return
2. Zenyatta in her first race back, since a short-lived retirement following her historic Breeders' Cup Classic win last November, going for 15 straight wins
3. If you missed the debate on last year's Horse of the Year and don't know about the possible Apple Blossom Stakes pitting the two famous and fabulous mares against each other, well you're just not a fan...yet.
4. Last year's two-year-old champion colt and early Derby favorite, Lookin At Lucky made his return to the races
5. For added measure, another Derby prep (for both Kentucky and Santa Anita), the San Felipe was on tap

Has there been a day like this in Thoroughbred history? Maybe, maybe not. But the point is this day went unnoticed by most sports fans. I have already given yesterday's races/stories more space than Sunday's Boston Globe.

What could have happened, if there were some centralized brains and creativity in the horse racing world - "Hello, NTRA, anyone home?" - the four races listed above could have been stacked within 10-15 minutes of each other and shown within a one hour or 90-minute long telecast. The stories abounded and the races thrilling and a champion fell. Instead of the sappy, human interest stories millions of sports and horse racing fans get each Kentucky Derby day, we could have seen a showcase of today's finest equine athletes - one right after another.

Instead, all the action was limited to fans and bettors of HRTV, TVG or Bet America or those visiting their local track or off-track-betting facility. Sadly, the only nationally organized body behind Thoroughbred horse racing (NTRA) doesn't have a clue or a thought to put such a telecast together. Heck, the NTRA couldn't even get their own act together to show the races on their website.

Finally, how about this: why doesn't a national network (ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX or ESPN) get together with an Internet Account Wagering company and put together a telecast concentrating on horse racing wagering. You know, how to bet, types of bets, betting angles, etc. A racing publication like Daily Racing Form or Brisnet could get involved. Advertisers for such a broadcast could try shilling their product at a cut rate. C'mon wouldn't this net local and national broadcast television stations more than a half and hour infomerical on an absorbent towel or blanket-jacket?????

Someone, anyone with the know-how...please....

Derby Baker's Dozen - February

A little rain and a little cold delaying things mid-west to the Left Coast. C'mon! In New England we're in shorts and t-shirts at 32 degrees this time of year and try shoveling 14 inches of snow! A few inches of rain making things hairy at the Great Race Place, oh that's right the racing surface is as fake as California women's chests and just not as true.....

A few notes on this month's list:

• Rule looks like the real deal - certainly ran like it at Vinton, LA and Tampa, FL. With only one start scheduled before his Derby try, it better be just as good as his last two. No room for error.
• Boys in waiting - Lookin At Lucky, Super Saver and Buddy's Saint will all get into action in the next few weeks or months. Let's hope their trainers planned accordingly in this era of infrequent runs to guard against the "bounce" or just about anything happening win, lose or front wraps.
• Still like Dublin and his traditional three race prep schedule following surgery. I have the feeling we'll see the Spa Dublin in Arkansas.
• Bottom five with big upside - Just like in handicapping looking for Homeboykris, Sidney's Candy, Wow Wow Wow, Stay Put and Eightyfiveinafifty to step up in some way in their next starts. Why not?