Backing In and Breaking Out

I don't like winning or losing by disqualification - never have, never will. Maybe it's because I haven't hit anything really big through a DQ. Today, I backed into my el cheapo Pick 3 at Gulfstream when Take the Points was taken down after some bouncing back and forth off Le Grand Cru and impeding (maybe) Yate's Black Cat in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. I had Yate's and was hoping he'd get through, which would have probably given me a $75-$100 Pick Three with two chalks and Yate's. Three chalks in what ended up in an $8 play that returned $15. I'll take it...

Quality Road's talent has been evident since his impressive Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby wins last year at Gulfstream. He's been devastating from 6 1/2 furlongs all the way up the classic distance of a 1 1/4. The only start in which he didn't register a triple-digit Beyer speed figure was when he was off a step slow in his second career start. That start, a hoof injury and wet tracks have kept him from being perfect.

This afternoon in the Donn he trounced an OK field without breaking a sweat while breaking his own track record. After his tour de force, it got me more interested in seeing a Rachel Alexandra/Quality Road match up because it would pit speed vs. speed. And we all know speed kills. Unless your name is Zenyatta.

Donn Day Picks

Last week's Millions Day Pick Four at Gulfstream ended predictably - 3 out of 4. It ain't bad, but it don't pay. So this week, allow me to take a step back and try an el cheapo all stakes Pick 3 and spread exacta play in Race 8. When you're skating with $25 in your Internet wagering account, you've got to keep it simple.

Race 8: I really don't like the breeding, the draw and the connections of the morning line favorite Wildcat Frankie. His Beyers are gaudy, but his ability beyond 5 1/2 furlongs still can be questioned. Tossing the chalk leaves the door open for many to finish in the top, so I'l spread out with two logical choices and two bombs.

First the Logical choices - Overcommunication toyed with a small field at the Big A in his lone start. What that means, I'm still not sure. But this three-year-old is getting some winter buzz and with a big win he may end up on the trail to the Florida Derby. Soldier Field is one of, I don't know, 20 Derby contenders WinStar Farm has in the barn. Gulfstream doesn't favor his come-from-behind style, but with any kind of speed duel he has a real shot.

The Bombs: Enigmatic has run true to his name - two stinkers with a win at today's distance in between. Take heed of his connections win percentage 40% at track and 35% the last two years with a return on investment of $3.68. Tuvia's Force's human connections have similar big numbers 46% at track and 31% the last two years. This is especially noteworthy since Johnny V. is not off many Pletcher horses as is the case in this race.

The Play: $1 Ex Box 3-4-5-8 for $12.

The Pick Three is filled with two legitimate short-priced favorites and a wide-open closing leg.

Race 9, Grade I GP Turf Handicap: Court Vision is a deserving favorite, but he just doesn't win enough for my liking: three wins from his last 15 starts. The distance is also a question with his one win going 1 1/8 was in the Jamaica Handicap almost a year and a half ago. In this race last year, he couldn't get to the winner and was passed by long shot Just as Well. He goes in the play, but Yates Black Cat is my top choice at a much better price. He exploded for convincing win at the track and distance in his first start of 2010. He also has five wins at Saturday's distance.

Race 10, Grade I Donn: Try as I might, I can't find anyone to beat Quality Road. If he runs back to his Hal Hope race, which was not his best, he wins - easily. Keep it simple, take the single at even money or less.

Race 11, Grade III Suwannee River: This is a wide open turf affair. Let's get right to it. Aaroness is likely to get a good trip and if there's room at the rail turning for home, she's in the mix at 12-1. Astrologie is either a good horse with no luck or a horse that creates her own bad luck. Regardless I'm afraid to leave her off my el cheapo ticket. Indigo North finished behind two next out winners in her first start of the season going a mile at Gulfstream a month ago - that's enough for me to add another long shot to the mix. Lemonette is a mare I like, one that I seem to leave off my ticket when she runs well and bet her heavy when she comes up short. She likes to finish second (10 times from 26 lifetime starts), but gets on the ticket just in case. Tottie goes for underrated trainer Chad Brown. With seven horses likely to be within 2 lengths of each other approaching the wire, Lady Shakespeare is the last of my spread play in the finale.

The Play: $1 Pick Three 2-3/4/1-6-7-8-11-12 for $12. Good luck with your wagers!

Homer Out

The first big injury of Derby contenders was reported today. Winslow Homer is out 3-6 months due to a stress fracture of his cannon bone. Too bad. I liked the way Winslow powered between horses to win the Holy Bull. Too bad because I like and often bet on Anthony Dutrow-trained horses.

As Predicted...

The first allowance-winning horse getting serious Derby attention is: Drosselmeyer. The odds-on choice won in a decent time Sunday afternoon at Gulfstream, taking over mid-stretch of a 1 1/8-mile affair finishing in 1:49 and 2/5 seconds.

Drosselmeyer has some pretty good connections:

Ridden by: Kent Desormeaux (three-time Derby winner)

Trained by: Bill Mott (well-known turf trainer and Cigar's trainer)

Owned by: WinStar Farm (perennial, multiple Derby horse owners)

Sired by: Distorted Humor (Derby winner and expensive sire)

Drosselmeyer was purchased for $600,000 last year. An oh by the way, he won a mile, off the turf event, at Churchill drawing off to win by six lengths this past November.

Like one of last year's Florida-based phenoms, Dunkirk (no factor in Derby, second in Belmont) Drosselmeyer's connection will need some graded-stakes earnings to get into the Churchill starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Unlike Dunkirk, Drosselmeyer had four races under his belt as a two-year-old. (Dunkirk had none.) Stay tuned...

Sunshine Millions/Gulfstream Late Pick 4

With the thermometer straining to reach 10 degrees just outside of Boston today, it's nice to at least have the Sunshine Millions to watch and wager on. With a 50-cent minimum, Gulfstream's late Pick 4 looks to be the most affordable play albeit most likely a modest pay out. I'm looking to limit the play for $2. Without further ado...

Race 7: A N1X Allowance on the turf features a full field of 12. This is usually the type of race I'd like to spread for some insurance, but I'm going to single instead. Dangerous maybe, but when you have the filly who came closest to catching Rachel Alexandra then, in my mind, you've got your single: Flying Spur. Bonus: With a field of 12, you're likely to get better than her 2-1 or 3-1 odds in the Pick 4.

Race 8: The Sprint features two heavy favorites going six furlongs. I'm going to respect both Pashito the Che and This Ones for Phil, by including them in wager. But I'm also going to include Accredit, who with the inside post and the ability to rip off a 22 and change first quarter, might just lead from gate to wire. At 6-1, he will be the key to whether a winning wager will be worth the play.

Race 9: Like the Sprint, the Distaff will have co-favorites in Sweet Repent and Jessica is Back, but I'll only include one of these on the ticket. With the unusual break from just off the clubhouse turn, Jessica is Back maybe put at just enough of a disadvantage leaving from the seven-hole to be compromised for the win. In addition with the lesser known connections of Braddy and Cruz, Sweet Repent will likely be the better price. For kicks and giggles, I'm tossing in Scolara, who makes only her second start on dirt for Bill Mott. The last time she made such a start was at Gulfstream, where she just missed in allowance company two years ago. She's also juicy at 12-1 and could close strongly in the top two or even, if Amazing, gets involved in a speed duel.

Race 10: The Turf will feature overwhelming favorite Soldier's Dancer, who will need at least some speed to run at and might just be caught chasing the likely on the loose leader, Jet Propulsion. If Leparoux can ration off Jet Propulsion's speed advantage through 24 second quarters, the seven-year-old will be tough to catch. While Wolfson, doesn't claim many (o-for-2 in such scenarios the past two years), like Richard Dutrow, he's really tough sending out horses first time (33% the last two years). Pickapocket scares me here and I'll add him just in case.

The play for 50-cent minimum: 5/3-4-6/4-8/8-10-11 for $9 or $36 if you play it for $2. Good luck and let's hope one of the long shots gets through for a decent payoff.

Derby Baker's Dozen

About the middle of each month I will unveil the top 13, 3-year-olds making their way on the Derby Trail. What this list isn't - a forecaster of who will win the Derby. What it is - the top Derby contenders at the time the list is made. Enough explanation, the list appears in the left hand column of this blog. A few notes on January's top colts:

• Lookin At Lucky - waiting for his three-year-old debut, should be worth the wait
• Winslow Homer - the Holy Bull time doesn't matter, the way he won does
• Conveyance and Dryfly - both will need to convince me they can go longer
• Rule - just might be the first Derby winner to go through Vinton, LA
• Dublin - can the Coach get back to his Derby winning ways with Hopeful Stakes winner?

That's all for now...check out February' s list on or about the 15th.

Holy Bull is Back!

After a one-year experiment, the Holy Bull is back where it belongs as the first stakes in a series leading toward the Florida Derby - the Fountain of Youth makes up the middle leg.

This year the field looks stacked and depending on tomorrow's result, Gulfstream may hold all the cards for Derby Day. While the Fair Grounds' LeComte looks like a N1X Allowance, the Holy Bull has six stakes-placed colts including a bellwether 100 Beyer horse and favorite Jackson Bend. Here's what the favorite and others bring to the table:

• Jackson Bend - besides the gaudy speed figure, he's also won five straight and been purchased by perennial Triple Crown hopeful owner, Robert LaPenta
• Homeboykris - the lone Grade I winner in the field at the Holy Bull distance of a mile
• Thank U Phillippe - finished second, a 1/16 of a mile behind Buddy's Saint in Grade II Nashua Stakes
• Piscitelli - for a brief moment looked like 50-1 upset winner of Juvenile, but held strong less than a length behind the other long shot, Vale of York
• William's Kitten - Ramsey, Marker, Leparoux ride their Derby hopeful after a decent second in Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club
• Aikenite - a Pletcher-trained hopeful got lots of action finishing fifth in Juvenile and makes his first start of his three-year-old season

Beyond these six there's the Anthony Dutrow-trained Winslow Homer, who in his last start exploded for a 12 and 1/2 length allowance win. The field is stacked and the yes, the Derby race is on....