Sunday, November 7, 2010
Saturday, November 6, 2010
Friday, November 5, 2010
Monday, November 1, 2010
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Friday, September 10, 2010
Friday, August 27, 2010
Race 9 - Grade III Victory Ride Stakes for fillies
Beyondallboundarys– tactical speed and steady improvement in last three races, Amoss ain’t coming for nothing
Katy Now – now horse, ready to fire fresh on cut back in distance
Race 10 - Grade I Ballerina - wide open affair
Rightly So – gets the rail, off two excellent races, 2-for-2 at distance and fast works
Warbling – totally missed break in last and still ran well, should rate her back for one run
Jessica Is Back – was able to rate in last and got a rest before big time try here, grade one winner
Informed Decision – sprint champion working up to big score?
Qualia – what’s not to like, has finished first or second in all six of her races
Pretty Prolific – has the ability to close from back of pack if pace becomes too fast up front
Race 11 - Grade I King's Bishop for colts
D’Funnybone – five time stakes winner and four times seven furlong winner with two wins over the likely favorite Discreetly Mine (bounce candidate)
Bulldogger and Bank Merger are both stepping way up in class over impressive wins during their short careers, if either can win you get 5-1 or better
Race 12 - Travers' Stakes
Fly Down – should see a hot pace in front of him and has the ability to engulf the front runners with one strong move…the single
The $1 Pick Four Play: 7-9/1-6/3-5-6/8 for $36. Good luck with all your wagers!
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
A little more than a year in the making - actually the video footage sat on the shelf since August 2009 before I started editing this summer. I was hoping to have this ready by the Spa's opening weekend, but life, racing and betting got in the way.
I hope you enjoy this 7-minute plus video. Excuse some herky-jerky footage, as everything was shot hand-held without the use of a tripod.
Friday, July 30, 2010
Thursday, July 22, 2010
- Connie and Michael has every right to improve in her sixth lifetime start and third start off the layoff. Looks to turn the tables against the top choice and has the tactical speed to do so.
- Acting Happy was absolutely determined to win the Black Eyed Susan in her last. Rick Dutrow brings her back off that race and scores 32 percent will such layoffs. If she is quick enough, she could give Devil May Care all kinds of problems, tracking just outside her flank.
Saturday, July 17, 2010
- Some pace information - who will take the lead? will she have company? does the pace scenario favor your pick or will he have to work against it?
- Some rider/trainer stats - you can't dismiss a trainer that wins 33% with first time claimers, 28% off a long layoff or a jockey that moves a horse up on the turf. (An aside: great and well-know jockeys bring horse odds down, but don't necessarily get them to the winner's circle.)
- Limited breeding info - does she have winning siblings on the turf? can he get 10 furlongs? does the sire have a high percentage of first-time winners?
- Track bias if any exist - for instance hardly any horse held the lead at Monmouth yesterday (July 16) discounting all front-runners, period!
- How much are you willing to bet?
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Friday, July 2, 2010
- Rachel Alexandra draws crowds, which in turn draws money to the track that offers the purse. Could Oaklawn have recouped its $1 million purse for Rachel and Zenyetta, probably not, but the track would have received more than $1 million in free publicity throughout the country and in the long run this would have been good for their business.
- Rachel Alexandra is one of the few Thoroughbreds to transcended our beloved sport and make it into sports pages and onto SportsCenter whenever she runs. This draws attention to the filly and the sport in general, which is never a bad thing. All horse racing wagering outlets gain greater business - simulcast, live and on-line - when she runs.
- Which came first, the offers for more purse money or the demand by Jackson? Maybe it doesn't matter, but if the offers were made (by Jackson holding out on his decision to run), why shouldn't he 1) run Rachel Alexandra for more money and 2) continue to make the demand? This is like saying professional athletes shouldn't take the many millions owners pay them...come on, this is America!
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
- Super Saver gets super ride
- Best betting angle - rider changes
- Once again possibly the best horse - Eskendereya like Quality Road - sidelined before Derby Day
- Huge exotic payouts through Triple Crown cards
- Belmont to Travers victory for Drosselmeyer?
- Lookin at Lucky has the inside track for best three-year-old
- Borel approaching folk hero status at Churchill and beyond
- Firsts for good guys - Smith and Mott and newcomer Garica
- Back to the reality of finding a winner from $35,000 claimers on Pick 3 and 4 tickets
Friday, June 4, 2010
- Here's my take on the Belmont Stakes and the five other stakes races on the card with some very affordable and quite hittable multi-race wagers.
- A compact but fairly talented field here. For me it comes down simply to the horse I believe is the fastest - Eightyfiveinafifty. Take away the Churchill mud and the bizarre Whirlaway Stakes in which his bridle broke and he ran off the track, and he's run two triple-digit Beyer scores. While D'Funnybone is 3-for-3 at the tricky, 7 furlong distance and doesn't need the lead, Eightfiveinafifty may force his hand to go along at a rapid pace - one that he may not be able to keep up with. Derby entrant, Discreetly Mine, is the wild card.
- Another compact field with a few stand outs...Speak Easy Gal is the price play at 7-2, if there is such a thing. Castellano, who excels on the turf, will likely play catch-me-if-you-can with a loose lead. Proviso, a two-time Grade I winner and against the boys no less in her last. Must respect. Phola has won three straight in going from allowance to grade three to grade two company with rising Beyers in each, which makes her tough to ignore.
- A crowded field that can be pared down to three contenders. Custom for Carlos brings his A-game just about every time and excels at this sprint distance. Strasbourg is an X-factor moving way up to Grade II company coming off a tough allowance loss at a mile. Trainer Albertrani wins at just about 25% second off a mid-layoff and you'll get at least double digit odds for this $450,000 purchase out of champion Friends Lake. Checklist rounds out the top three coming off a triple-digit score and a short rest. He'll either win by 10 lengths or lose by 25.
- Really no standout in this division, so just about everyone is live here, but let me try to narrow it down to a little. Tanda goes from synthetic to dirt and west to east here, but owns the last two highest Beyers. Hollywood strip plays like dirt and trainer Dan Hendricks isn't bringing her all this way for nothing. While Seeking the Title dropped her rider during the Black Eyed Susan Stakes, she should not be faulted for this and Desormeaux comes right back to ride. Streaker from the powerful Phipps Stable has every right to improve off two, single-turn wins at Gulfstream and Belmont and could pass class test with flying colors. Not sure what to do with either Amen Hallelujah or Quiet Temper - both are inconsistent while showing flashes of brilliance. With blinkers on, Indian Burn should be included for deep tickets.
- Either everyone is in here or everyone is out except for one. I'm going with just the one because 11 entries are just too many to play. Gio Ponti, older turf champion, has yet to score this year, but has run two sneaky good races. He loves Belmont, winning and $3.5 million in the bank is enough for me to single here.
- No Derby or Preakness winners here, so a big evenly-matched field goes forward. I can see a case to be made for every hopeful except Dave in Dixie - overmatched, Stately Victor - overrated and Uptowncharlybrown - poorly breed for such a distance. I've been trying to get it down to less than four choices and if I could only pick one, it would be First Dude. He's the most likely candidate to go coast-to-coast ripping off 24 and change quarters along the way. Fly Down showed a great turn of foot in Dwyer and is most likely to inherit a lead at the top of the lane. Spangled Star has the breeding to get the job done and nothing else. Worth some sort of play at 30-1 or greater. Trying to like Ice Box, Drosslemeyer and Make Music for Me, but at this time will probably include the chalk, Ice Box, just in case.
- Pick 3 (Races 6-9) - a cheap pay looking for $50 plus return: 1-5/1-3-5/2-8 for $8
- Pick 6 - an affordable triple single play 1/1-3/2/2-4-5/1/2-5-6-11 for $48
- Pick 4 (Races 8-11) affordable with big payoff potential 2-4-8/2-4-5-11/1/2-5-11 for $36
- Pick 3 (Races 6-9) 1-5/1-3/3-6-7-8-9 for $20
- Pick 6 1/1-3/6-8/2-4-5/1/5-11 for $48
- Pick 4 (Races 8-11) 3-6-8/2-4-6-8/1/2-5-11 $36
Saturday, May 15, 2010
- While his critics will be picking against him, say Calvin Borel led Super Saver through a perfect trip for the Derby, which made winning it easy, many horses get perfect trips and fail.
- Derby winners have great success on Preakness day.
- Here's where Pletcher and just about every other trainer's lightly raced schedule pays dividends - Super Saver will race for only the fourth time this calendar year.
- Finally, Borel gets to pick and choose how he wants to go - if others go for the lead he can lay back, if no one goes for the front Super Saver has enough speed to win on the front end.
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
- Garret Gomez, much maligned for his last two rides aboard Lookin at Lucky, gets aboard Dublin for the first time on Saturday. Gomez is much better suited to Dublin's late running style. D. Wayne Lukas' top runner moves up considerably based on this rider change and goes into my Preakness exacta and trifecta bets.
- Jackson Bend simply got lost among the Derby throng. In a shorter field with an uncertain pace picture, he'll be much closer up and may either find himself loose-on-the-lead or tracking just off of Paddy O'Prado or whoever else wants the front.
Monday, May 10, 2010
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Thursday, April 22, 2010
- There will be at least ten automatic tosses
- With connections sending horses that are better qualified for allowance company (hello Homeboykris) or another surface besides dirt (hello Paddy O'Prado) there is a chance for real catastrophe at worst and traffic trouble at best
- With so much emphasis on Eskendereya, there will be a bevy of horses at choice odds, ensuring big exotics, even if the early favorite wins"
- Super Saver - third off the layoff here while also showing lots of talent as a junvenile...a win at Churchill doesn't hurt either.
- Sidney's Candy - probably the most improved three-year-old that was on nobody's radar three months ago...big question here is will he rate? or does he have to?
- Eskendereya - two monster performances make him the favorite going in, but do wins against a handful of also rans make him vulenerable?
- Luckin at Lucky - has found lots of traffic in his three-year-old races, but has push-button excelerration...a must for any Derby winner.
- Endorsement - sure he beat a probable miler in Conveyance in Sunland Derby, but he posted one of the few triple-digit Beyers in a Derby prep which means either another monster performance awaits or a bounce to last...I'm willing to take a shot with him.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Saturday, April 17, 2010
- As a six-time winner Forest Attack must be taken seriously winning and placing in minor stakes at Turfway Park and just missing at Keenland last year going six furlongs. Canyon Drive is stepping up in class, but may just get loose on the lead here, if Final Count isn't ready or willing to go with him coming off a six month layoff. My hope lands with Deal Breaker having just a bit more class than his rivals, saving ground patiently at the rail and making a bold run turning for home to take this event as 2-1 favorite. I'm guessing his trainer Mike Mitchell has brought this five-year-old from California for more than just a run around the track.
- Canadian Ballet is fast period. She is the fastest mare in here and will get a clear look at her competition coming from the far post. Her trainer, Linda Rice, excels in these turf events and if one of the three speed horses in this field are likely to hold on, it's Canadian Ballet. If I get through the first leg single, the real hope here is that Valentine Fever stoutly closes on three fading speed horses and picks up the pieces at 10-1 or greater. She's the only dead-closer in the field and if they go out under 22 seconds for the first quarter, she'll have a real chance. West Ocean presents the biggest danger, but I'm looking for her to bounce coming off a course-record performance off the funky Fair Grounds turf.
- As stated earlier, I will hit the all button here in a 12-horse field. But if you're interested in who I like the best it would come down to these three: Krypton for winning going away at Keenland in his last; Distorted Dave because everything John Sadler sends out lately should be bet; and Kettle River who might bounce back to his impressive win two back after disappointing in the Sham.