Saturday, April 24, 2010

Channeling The Derby Part 2 - 2010 - The Tosses

For me it doesn't matter where these horses break from, who their sires were, who trains or rides them or what I thought about them two days, weeks or months ago - it's time to present my tosses. These are the colts that won't make any of my Derby tickets - multi- or single-race exotic wagers.

I'm going to start with the most difficult cut of all. This was a horse I was high on, watch break his maiden at Saratoga and had Derby dreams of: Dublin. Sometimes it is hard to separate the heart from the head, whether you're rooting for or betting on a Thoroughbred of your choosing. By Afleet Alex and trained by the once-veneable, D. Wayne Lukas I really thought Dublin would show up in a big way at Oaklawn's Derby preps. Unfortunately the excuses were bountiful, the rider was changed and then changed back and the horse just didn't pass muster in the Arkansas series. It is hard for me to fathom, but I won't include Dublin on any Derby tickets. The first cut is always the toughest.

The rest of the tosses with far less expository text....

Sidney's Candy - The second toughest cut....I've got him in a small future bet at 33-1, so I don't feel an overwhelming need to use one of the many, many pacesetters in my Derby Day wagers (I know Iisted him in my top five a few days, but things have changed, call it enlightenment, if you like)

Line of David - front runners aplenty and he isn't the fastest of the bunch

Noble's Promise - lots of grit, but not enough talent to hit the board...might not even go

Rule - working poorly and doesn't seem to have enough umph to make 10 furlongs... connections are deciding whether to enter him

American Lion - ran back to two-year-old form in Illinois, too bad two-year-old form won't hold up on May 1

Discreetly Mine - ran one big one and followed it with a fourth-place fade, another not likely rating and helping ensure stalkers/closers rule the day

Stately Victor - besides runner up Street Sense, who already had established dirt form at Churchill, the Blue Grass has become a joke since Polytrack was installed

Awesome Act - sorry I'm not sold on his European form and Gotham win was against a bunch of N1X allowance types

Dean's Kitten - really?

Homeboykris -he's in and out of all of my bets


There they are - eleven to discard in exactas, trifectas, pick threes and fours. None of this bunch scares me in the least. Of course there will be some reshuffling of the Derby deck over the next three days with decisions on Interactif, Rule, Devil May Care and even possibly Blind Luck, which will affect others like Backtalk and Make Music for Me. So after the Wednesday afternoon draw, I will reveal the ten I will bet in some fashion. I feel at peace. More on that after I hit my gong a few more times, chant and burn some incense.....

3 comments:

  1. Don't forget to say "Oooommmmm" on Wednesday!!!

    Did you hear or read something about BLIND LUCK going in the Derby? I've only seen she's a lock to run in the Oaks. I guess w/ ESKENDEREYA scratched, that'll make the 'DORF think twice about the Derby. Gonna do a post tomorrow about the girls. Stay tuned.

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  2. Tony,
    100% agree with your throw outs, except AWESOME ACT. I think he's got talent and solid trainer to boot. The Wood could be excused due to the whole thrown shoe thing. I heard he wasn't training all that great at CD though, so definitely not a slam dunk to win, but maybe he hits the board . . .

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  3. pleasure to find such a good artical! please keep update!! ........................................

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