Saturday, April 10, 2010

Derby Prep Upsets Mean What?

So the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes upset your Derby Dreams apple cart with $82 and $36 plus winners?

My answers are well, yes and's why:

Dublin and Super Saver both ran OK. In his second start of the year and reunited with regular rider, Cavil Borel, Super Saver stalked well for the first time in his career. He came to, but could not get by eventually winner, Line of David. It was an improvement off a now, sour-looking Tampa Derby with Super Saver the only horse in the top four to move forward off that race.

Dublin was looking like his was going by the top two with his regular rider, Terry Thompson, in the saddle. He really had no excuse this time. Like Super Saver he might have distance limitations. At this point, without benefit of post draws and weather conditions, I'm likely to use both underneath in Derby bets.

The Blue Grass was a debacle with one-time winner, Stately Victor, coming through at long odds - the longest in Blue Grass history. Stately Victor will likely get the same hot pace to follow at Churchill that he got today, but can he maintain his form on dirt? He is by champion Ghostzapper.

Odysseus, Make Music for Me, Pleasant Prince, Akenite and Interactif all disappointed mightily. Of these five, I was looking for strong runs from Make Music for Me and Interactif with hopes of putting them into Derby wagers. On the flip side, the word was out on Paddy O'Prado who was bet down for morning line, 12-1 to about 5-1. Desormeaux had the race stolen aboard the turf specialist with a 1/16 of a mile to go before Stately Victor marched on by. I kind of like Paddy O'Prado to fill out trifecta and superfecta tickets, if he gets in.

Today's preps did nothing to dent my, and probably everyone else's, top three: Lookin at Lucky, Eskendereya and Sidney's Candy. The next three weeks will consist of what I like to call, Channeling the Derby. More on that later...

For the record, my future bets are win wagers on Sidney's Candy at 33-1 and Rule at 20-1 and an exacta box of Lookin at Lucky/Interactif/Super Saver paying out between about $300- $1,000 for a $1 bet.


  1. Tony,
    Neither prep race unfolded as I had expected. The Blue Grass was devoid of speed so I thought the deep closers didn't have much of a chance. What happened? A deep closer (Stately Victor) won easily. The Arkansas Derby had plenty of speed and a complete pace collapse seemed reasonable. What happened? Top three finishers loped along 1-2-3 all the way around the track. Line of David faced no pressure at all from Super Saver.

  2. Super Saver got the most out of the day's preps I think with Paddy O'Prado a close second.

    I really don't see Line of David (loose lead) or Stately Victor (rail saving trip, swinging out in time) getting the chance to repeat their winning performances.

    Interactif and Dublin become underneath plays and Endorsement moves up off his big win with more time to recover.