Horse Bada Bing Line
Eskendereya 2-1
Lookin at Lucky 4-1
Sidney's Candy 6-1
Super Saver 8-1
American Lion 8-1
Endorsement 10-1
Ice Box 10-1
Mission Impazible 12-1
Noble's Promise 12-1
Interactif 15-1
Stately Victor 15-1
Dublin 18-1
Conveyance 18-1
Line of David 20-1
Drosselmeyer 20-1
Rule 25-1
Discreetly Mine 25-1
Dean's Kitten 30-1
Awesome Act 35-1
Paddy O'Prado 40-1
Homeboykris 50-1
Uh Oh Bango 50-1
Horses in italics may either pass or get into the Derby gate late. A possible defection of Noble's Promise would open the door for Uh Oh Bango and Drosslemeyer would find himself in the Derby gate with a win in the Lexington, knocking Uh Oh Bango back out. In a few weeks we'll see how close I've come to the real deal...
Really no surprises here and much will be made of the works before May 1, which I really don't use in my handicapping. Last year, I factored in Friesan Fire's quick work, making him my Derby favorite. The really quick three furlong work reminded me of Hard Spun's pre-Derby work a few years ago, and I thought if it worked for one Larry Jones-trainee it would work for another. Man, I was wrong. One thing to consider when factoring in workouts, either slow or fast, is trainer Jack Van Berg's words following Alysheba's slow works, "Time only matters when you're serving it."
On the other hand, I would factor in the works report on DRF.com.
I would love to get 35-1 on Awesome Act come May 1st!
ReplyDeleteThat's the one horse I think I'm most wrong about, but couldn't quite figure him out. I do think he's a toss, despite his breeding. They do something other than race in the breeding sheds I hear....
ReplyDeleteHey, Tony,
ReplyDeleteCan I lock in the 40-1 on PADDY O'PRADO? His style on turf tells me he's just crying out for the dirt. Ran huge on the turf two back, regressed in the Blue Grass. He's ready to run his best again on Derby day.
Steve,
AA would have been 8-1 or less if he'd have been able to run his race without stumbling/throwing a shoe in the Wood. He was loaded entering and through the far turn...hard to manage because he wanted to go after ESKENDEREYA through those tepid splits. The early trouble sapped his energy late. That's a great price for you. I hear that Tony will book your action as well ;-)?
As a good friend at the track used to say: "Horses don't make the odds, people do." I am a far cry from an odds-maker, but I gave it a shot here. I believe I'll be closer to Paddy O'Prado's Derby Day odds than Awesome Act. As stated, I'll be using Paddy O'Prado to round out a few tickets.
ReplyDeleteAbout booking action, I've only done it once in seventh grade, but that's a story for another day.