Thursday, April 29, 2010

Channeling The Derby Fini - 2010

You (the few of you out there reading this) and me should have arrived at a Derby selection. If not now, then in a few hours or days. Or as Confucius is quoted, "And remember, no matter where you go, there you are."

So my question to you is, Where are you?

I know where I've landed, so let me tell you all about...

A mainstay of handicapping a race - besides finding the winner - is to eliminate the losers. The tosses where made in a previous post, but if you're too lazy to scroll down, let's review:

Homeboykris - 150-1 would be generous

Dublin - unfortunately yesterday's news

American Lion - fighting for the lead

Discreetly Mine - see American Lion

Sidney's Candy - see Discreetly Mine

Line of David - see Sidney's Candy

Stately Victor - somehow becoming overrated at 30-1

Dean's Kitten - forgotten and probably should be

Awesome Act - thrown shoe may have been least of his problems in Wood

A few more to toss:

Devil May Care - goes because Johnny V. is available to ride, sounds like an afterthought

Make Music for Me - last minute additions, Mine That Bird aside, usually don't hit the board

Backtalk - 24 lengths back in last two graded stakes, yikes

Jackson Bend - likable little horse, but finished 8 and 9 lengths behind in last two

Those that get in (at least on the superfecta tickets):

12 Conveyance - certainly won't win, but something tells me he hangs around for small piece

3 Noble's Promise - back and forth on this one, but huge wet pedigree makes me put him in for second, third or fourth

10 Paddy O'Prado - either upset threat or pretender, Desormeaux is riding very well these days

2 Ice Box - with all the upfront speed, somebody has to close late and pass tired horses

14 Mission Impazible - speed figures going the right way and may be forgotten Pletcher horse

1 Lookin At Lucky - sure tough post, but has overcome much adversity already - gets top spot on trifecta ticket

4 Super Saver - the pick - has romped in slop and at Churchill - with crafty rider Calvin Borel getting first run on tiring speed horses

Plays rain or shine:

$1 Exacta Wheel 2-4-10/1-2-4-10-14 for $12. This is a long shot special

$1 Trifecta Wheel 1-2-4/1-2-3-4-14/1-2-3-12-14 for $42. This is including Lookin At Lucky on top just in case

$1 Superfecta Wheel 4/1-2-3-14/1-2-3-14/1-2-3-14 $24. Keeping it simple

In case you're playing on Oaks Day - 82 and sunny, thank you very much...

Starting with Race 9

$1 Pick Three: 2-3-6-7-8/1/2-3-5-8-11-13 for $30.

I'm going against singling Blind Luck in the feature, Oaks and final leg and instead singling Setsuko in Race 10 - who trainer Richard Mandella was hoping to get into the Derby and who DRF's Mike Welsch thought galloped the best this week. The Alysheba also gets a big spread with hopes of Flying Private winning it and setting up a big score....

Good luck with all your wagers!


  1. Tony,

    Please tell me that you played SUPER SAVER to win and also wheeled the exacta choices into a tri ...please. That would be some shrewd playin'!

  2. Rob,

    I thought the same thing after the race abut the tri...but I did not extend the ticket. I spread in different ways as you can see. There was also a problem with Express Bet and I had trouble just getting any wager in, so that kind of threw me off...At least I had the exacta (so did my father-in-law) and a few friends bet Super Saver straight up on my advice, so all and all it was a winning Derby...