Early Odds for Kentucky Derby Pool 2

There are some real head scratchers as of early Saturday morning in Churchill Down's second Kentucky Derby Future Pool. (Full disclosure: Please read post below about playing such a crazy bet as the Derby Future Pool, take with grain of salt and then keep future bets small enough to be fun.) Back to a bit of betting confusion...

• El Padrino at 16-1 is an absolute underlay. He's a monster, hard worker and is coming into his own at the right time. If he wins his next prep before making it to the first Saturday in May, he won't be anywhere near 16-1.
• Mark Valeski finished just one nose behind El Padrino and like the former, he's getting right at the right time. With odds at 53-1, I'll probably take a small shot with him. 
• Castaway doesn't look to have distance limitations, finished first in a division of Southwest Stakes and may be returning to Oaklawn for a repeat performance in the Rebel. 43-1 is far too high for any of Baffert's horses.
• Hansen is the only single betting interest that will be running before the end of the pool at 6 pm on Sunday. Somebody please help me understand how Churchill Downs Inc. decides the timing of their future pools? I don't work for Churchill, but I would think waiting for next weekend when there are three potential prep races run (Tampa Bay Derby, Swale and San Felipe) would have been a better time to generate excitement and wagering in this pool? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?  
• Gemologist, Dullahan and Sabercat are all still sitting on the bench awaiting their first start of their 3-year-old seasons, yet they've showed up in the Future Pool 2. This proves graded stakes earnings rule over performance and Churchill's reliance on such earnings provides the adverse incentive (at least for fans like me) of keeping three-year-olds away from the races. There needs to be a sliding point scale  system - more points for higher grades and greater emphasis on three-year-old races vs. two-year-old races. If Dullahan, Sabercat or Gemologist were somewhere towards the middle or bottom of a point system, I'm guessing we would have seen them race at least once apiece by now, who knows maybe twice? (A man can dream can't he?)
• The betting public - meaning us - aren't exactly suiting up for this pool with less than $50,000 in the pool by the time my almost 3-year-old daughter woke up on Saturday morning, 5:15. 

Guide to a Winning Kentucky Derby Future Wager

Here for the reading - a quick, no-nonsense guide to finding a winning strategy for beating the Kentucky Derby Future Pool.

10.  There is no such thing as morning line odds. The advance of a line the morning or two before, sure that's a morning line. A line 60-some-odd days before that's reading the tea leaves or palms. Good luck with following that logic.

9. These entrants from Pool 1 won't cloud the picture Algorithms, Discreet Dancer, Ever So Lucky, Junebugred, Longview Drive, and Mr. Bowling. Of course Algorithms is out, like for a long time; Discreet Dancer can't get two turns;  Ever So Lucky is not; and the last three finished up the track at the Fair Grounds.

8. Unlike pork bellies, oranges or oil - there is no guarantee that you future wager will ever be delivered or cashed. You can sweat out a commodity until its delivery date and take losses big or small, but the likelihood of seeing your future wager get "delivered" into the Churchill starting gate on the first Saturday in May is not good.

7. Breeding is overrated - the fact of the matter is the vast of majority Thoroughbreds can't and won't get  the 1 1/4 miles distance. Whether they come out of A.P. Indy or Boundary, 10 furlongs is simply beyond a breed bred to run fast and not-so-much long.

6. Decisions are tough: six-pack of beer, steak for dinner or a future wager. The most immediate future wagers, like the moments before horses enter the starting gate, are hard enough. Nine weeks out consult the stars and planets. Dullahan has yet to run this year, News Pending finished second behind Union Rags because someone had to and Bodemeister and Battle Hardened have recently left the maiden ranks. 150-1 doesn't begin to cover the risk/reward on these.

5. Not happy burning your money with a straight win wager, how about happily handicapping imaginary exactas. Simply guess who might be in the pool and wheel them on top or on bottom or both. How to eliminate contenders from pretenders: toss out the odd, keep the even or count the letters in your name, if they match yours, your spouse, children or favorite frat brother, keep 'em. Everything else is waste of time.

4. Like the shortest odds in the field on El Padrino and Union Rags? Even if both make it to the Derby, Union Rags could draw post number one and El Padrino post number 20 - good luck with that.

3. Just three key races have been run since the last Future Pool - Southwest, Risen Star and Fountain of Youth Stakes - have given us the two mentioned above as well as Secret Circle and Castaway. Face it, you really don't know that much and choices made through ignorance usually will find you in jail, petulant, drunk or all three.

2. All other 3 year-olds open at 3-1. Hmmmm - take one of around 400 Triple Crown nominees or get about 370 for shorter odds. The numbers are on your side and 3-1 gets you a 300% return on your money, try getting that from Wall Street or at the Main Street Bank.

1. If there ever was a time to follow the advice that sometimes the best bet is no bet at all, this is the time.

Oscars and Horses

Of course the Oscars and horses have absolutely nothing in common. Call me old school, but I really can't stand events, be it female Olympic figure skating or movie actors, that rely on subjective judging to determine a winner. No wonder any actor worth his salt - George C. Scott and Marlon Brando come to mind - don't attend the ceremonies or accept their awards. They knew the performance is all in the individual interpretation of the acting. Award ceremonies are for frilly gowns, borrowed jewels and assholes like "comedian" Sacha Baron Cohen and wonderfully narcissistic beauty kings and queens. (Disclaimer: I do like and will occasionally pay to see actors like George Clooney and Isabella Rossellini do their thing.)

I much prefer the action and adventure of sporting and life events where time, effort and energy are the only precursors to success...well those and a little luck. Track and field, just about any sport that is determined with a score, not a judgement and Thoroughbred horse racing.

What kind of sucker am I for the Sport of Kings? Today when I was watching a review of the 2009 Triple Crown season, my eyes watered as Rachel Alexandra took the Kentucky Oaks that year by more than 20 lengths. The singleness, the greatness of her athletic achievement was on display for anyone who wanted to watch. There were no votes cast for artistic impression or from an academy. She won through sheer will and athleticism - beauty at its finest.

Tonight while Billy Crystal made 'em laugh as he always does, Thoroughbred players and fans were trying to determine just who is the Kentucky Derby favorite - El Padrino, who clashed tooth and nail through the Fair Grounds stretch in winning the Risen Star Stakes or Union Rags, who looked professional and the epitome of a classic horse winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes with ease at Gulfstream Park. You really can't go wrong siding with either super horse of the moment. And even we can't agree on which may become the next Kentucky Derby champ or possible Triple Crown winner, we can at least agree that the matter will be settled on the track with blood, sweat and tears not unclasped from a crisp, gold envelope.