Friday, March 2, 2012

Guide to a Winning Kentucky Derby Future Wager

Here for the reading - a quick, no-nonsense guide to finding a winning strategy for beating the Kentucky Derby Future Pool.

10.  There is no such thing as morning line odds. The advance of a line the morning or two before, sure that's a morning line. A line 60-some-odd days before that's reading the tea leaves or palms. Good luck with following that logic.

9. These entrants from Pool 1 won't cloud the picture Algorithms, Discreet Dancer, Ever So Lucky, Junebugred, Longview Drive, and Mr. Bowling. Of course Algorithms is out, like for a long time; Discreet Dancer can't get two turns;  Ever So Lucky is not; and the last three finished up the track at the Fair Grounds.

8. Unlike pork bellies, oranges or oil - there is no guarantee that you future wager will ever be delivered or cashed. You can sweat out a commodity until its delivery date and take losses big or small, but the likelihood of seeing your future wager get "delivered" into the Churchill starting gate on the first Saturday in May is not good.

7. Breeding is overrated - the fact of the matter is the vast of majority Thoroughbreds can't and won't get  the 1 1/4 miles distance. Whether they come out of A.P. Indy or Boundary, 10 furlongs is simply beyond a breed bred to run fast and not-so-much long.

6. Decisions are tough: six-pack of beer, steak for dinner or a future wager. The most immediate future wagers, like the moments before horses enter the starting gate, are hard enough. Nine weeks out consult the stars and planets. Dullahan has yet to run this year, News Pending finished second behind Union Rags because someone had to and Bodemeister and Battle Hardened have recently left the maiden ranks. 150-1 doesn't begin to cover the risk/reward on these.

5. Not happy burning your money with a straight win wager, how about happily handicapping imaginary exactas. Simply guess who might be in the pool and wheel them on top or on bottom or both. How to eliminate contenders from pretenders: toss out the odd, keep the even or count the letters in your name, if they match yours, your spouse, children or favorite frat brother, keep 'em. Everything else is waste of time.

4. Like the shortest odds in the field on El Padrino and Union Rags? Even if both make it to the Derby, Union Rags could draw post number one and El Padrino post number 20 - good luck with that.

3. Just three key races have been run since the last Future Pool - Southwest, Risen Star and Fountain of Youth Stakes - have given us the two mentioned above as well as Secret Circle and Castaway. Face it, you really don't know that much and choices made through ignorance usually will find you in jail, petulant, drunk or all three.

2. All other 3 year-olds open at 3-1. Hmmmm - take one of around 400 Triple Crown nominees or get about 370 for shorter odds. The numbers are on your side and 3-1 gets you a 300% return on your money, try getting that from Wall Street or at the Main Street Bank.

1. If there ever was a time to follow the advice that sometimes the best bet is no bet at all, this is the time.

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