Saturday, May 15, 2010

Preakness Pick

My father was fond of saying, "Don't make an easy job hard." Preakness pick is Super Saver. Here's why:

  • While his critics will be picking against him, say Calvin Borel led Super Saver through a perfect trip for the Derby, which made winning it easy, many horses get perfect trips and fail.
  • Derby winners have great success on Preakness day.
  • Here's where Pletcher and just about every other trainer's lightly raced schedule pays dividends - Super Saver will race for only the fourth time this calendar year.
  • Finally, Borel gets to pick and choose how he wants to go - if others go for the lead he can lay back, if no one goes for the front Super Saver has enough speed to win on the front end.
Really 5-2 would be a gift on Super Saver. I'll be playing him to win and placing him on top in exacta, trifecta and superfecta wheels. My spread will not be as wide, but I will offer myself just a bit of protection.

Preakness bets:

$10 exacta 8-12 - I like Dublin to step way up with Gomez aboard

$1 trifecta wheel 7-8/1-7-8-12/1-5-6-7-10-12 for $28 for a little protection in case it was the rider and not the horse in Lookin at Lucky's case

$1 superfecta wheel 8/1-7-12/1-5-6-7-10-12/2-5-6-9 for a $54 superfecta stab....

Good luck with all your Preakness wagers

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Movin' On Up

Here's two horses to consider in your Preakness bets off of less than stellar performances on Derby Day:
  • Garret Gomez, much maligned for his last two rides aboard Lookin at Lucky, gets aboard Dublin for the first time on Saturday. Gomez is much better suited to Dublin's late running style. D. Wayne Lukas' top runner moves up considerably based on this rider change and goes into my Preakness exacta and trifecta bets.
  • Jackson Bend simply got lost among the Derby throng. In a shorter field with an uncertain pace picture, he'll be much closer up and may either find himself loose-on-the-lead or tracking just off of Paddy O'Prado or whoever else wants the front.
Listed at 10-1 and 12-1 on the morning line, here are the most likely long shot candidates to hit the board. Bet on it!

Monday, May 10, 2010

One Step Up and One Step Back

Let's start with the step back...

I am pleased with my Derby handicapping. I targeted seven of the 20 horses to bet with Super Saver as my top choice. In addition, I had a $1 exacta wheel totaling $12 which paid out around $76. Not even close to Turk-like payouts, but I at least go my money back on all my Derby wagers.

As usual my handicapping outweighed my actual betting. In retrospect, I simply overspread my bets. If I had stayed with my top three choices - Super Saver, Ice Box and Paddy O'Prado - I would have hit the trifecta for sure. I had included Make Music for Me in some additional double and underneath wagers, so if only...but really such 20-20 betting is for losers.

Now a quick look forward...

Last year Rachel Alexandra beat the boys after skipping the Derby. While there have been other fresh faces who have worn a blanket of black-eyed Susans most Preakness success comes from running first in the Derby. For this reason I suggest either a five-horse exacta box ($20 for each dollar bet) made up of Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky, Dublin, Paddy O'Prado and Jackson Bend. If you're feeling a little lucky I'd further suggest a Super Saver over the rest of the Dery gang over the rest of the Derby gang plus Schoolyard Dreams, Caracortado and Yawanna Twist for $24 for each $1.

Just a few thoughts before the middle child of the Triple Crown trail.

Saturday, May 1, 2010

How About a Hurricane Inspired Pick 4

Here's a last minute, all stakes Pick 4...

Humana Distaff:

Dr. Zinc - traveling too well of late to ignore
Warbling - big Beyer in last slop-run and 8-1
Informed Decision - in case she comes back to prior form
Cassidys Pride - huge step up and huge wet pedigree number, why not

Churchill Downs:

Country Day - another whose stock has gone up in slop - two 100 Beyers - and 15-1
Kensei - second off layoff for grade II winner
Musket Man - tough customer and held well in last year's sloppy Derby

Turf Classic - on the turf, off the turf, running on a bog???

Blues Street - gets the call for the single because I'll need lots of luck to get this far through the hail storms and he's raced well on all kinds of wet grass


Lookin At Lucky - best of the field may overcome post for win
Super Saver - track and slop success should not be discounted
Awesome Act - don't like him, but something tells me I need to include him at least on one bet

The play for $1: 1-2-3-7/2-11-12/7/1-4-16 for $36