Monday, May 10, 2010

One Step Up and One Step Back

Let's start with the step back...

I am pleased with my Derby handicapping. I targeted seven of the 20 horses to bet with Super Saver as my top choice. In addition, I had a $1 exacta wheel totaling $12 which paid out around $76. Not even close to Turk-like payouts, but I at least go my money back on all my Derby wagers.

As usual my handicapping outweighed my actual betting. In retrospect, I simply overspread my bets. If I had stayed with my top three choices - Super Saver, Ice Box and Paddy O'Prado - I would have hit the trifecta for sure. I had included Make Music for Me in some additional double and underneath wagers, so if only...but really such 20-20 betting is for losers.

Now a quick look forward...

Last year Rachel Alexandra beat the boys after skipping the Derby. While there have been other fresh faces who have worn a blanket of black-eyed Susans most Preakness success comes from running first in the Derby. For this reason I suggest either a five-horse exacta box ($20 for each dollar bet) made up of Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky, Dublin, Paddy O'Prado and Jackson Bend. If you're feeling a little lucky I'd further suggest a Super Saver over the rest of the Dery gang over the rest of the Derby gang plus Schoolyard Dreams, Caracortado and Yawanna Twist for $24 for each $1.

Just a few thoughts before the middle child of the Triple Crown trail.

1 comment:

  1. Nice job on the Derby winning pick, I completely left Super Saver out and forgot all about him.

    I'm taking Lookin At Lucky, Super Saver, Schoolyard Dreams, Paddy O'Prado and Caracortado as my top picks but I also like Dublin. Lookin At Lucky, Caracortado and Super Saver are my top three I think.