Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Movin' On Up

Here's two horses to consider in your Preakness bets off of less than stellar performances on Derby Day:
  • Garret Gomez, much maligned for his last two rides aboard Lookin at Lucky, gets aboard Dublin for the first time on Saturday. Gomez is much better suited to Dublin's late running style. D. Wayne Lukas' top runner moves up considerably based on this rider change and goes into my Preakness exacta and trifecta bets.
  • Jackson Bend simply got lost among the Derby throng. In a shorter field with an uncertain pace picture, he'll be much closer up and may either find himself loose-on-the-lead or tracking just off of Paddy O'Prado or whoever else wants the front.
Listed at 10-1 and 12-1 on the morning line, here are the most likely long shot candidates to hit the board. Bet on it!


  1. Alright, Jackson Bend is getting some respect! (: I liked him in the Derby but it was just too much of a mad scramble to the wire. He is my second pick in the Preakness this time around.
    I like Dublin as a "long-shot" but I think I like Schoolyard Dreams just a little bit better. If he really got as much out of the long rest between races as his trainer says he did, then he should run more to his Tampa Bay Derby performance.

  2. Tony,
    I like Jackson Bend to move up and hit the board, but Dublin?? Dunno.

    I think this is Lookin at Lucky's race. He got a decent post draw, should be a fast track, vs. a mediocre field, and the jockey switch may be help. What do you think?

  3. Railrunner,

    Schoolyard Dreams - I think his odds are right, but just don't think he's up to the task...maybe a good miler. This race is made for Jackson Bend.


    Mediocre field...I dunno about that. You've got the 1st and 3rd Derby horses, the two-year-old champ, a grade one winner in Dublin and of course I like all of these as stated.

    I'm high on Dublin because I feel he finally has a rider to match his style - Gomez is an extremely strong finisher and does best with horses off the pace. Dublin moves up and may even creep on the top of trifecta plays.

    On Saturday we get to see if Lookin at Lucky's troubles are his own or his jockey's. I'll put him in, but he's not my top pick.

    Two tri plays I toying with are 8-12/8-12/All or