Friday, August 27, 2010

Travers' Day Pick Four

Race 9 - Grade III Victory Ride Stakes for fillies

Beyondallboundarys– tactical speed and steady improvement in last three races, Amoss ain’t coming for nothing

Katy Now – now horse, ready to fire fresh on cut back in distance

Race 10 - Grade I Ballerina - wide open affair

Rightly So – gets the rail, off two excellent races, 2-for-2 at distance and fast works

Warbling – totally missed break in last and still ran well, should rate her back for one run

Jessica Is Back – was able to rate in last and got a rest before big time try here, grade one winner

Informed Decision – sprint champion working up to big score?

Qualia – what’s not to like, has finished first or second in all six of her races

Pretty Prolific – has the ability to close from back of pack if pace becomes too fast up front

Race 11 - Grade I King's Bishop for colts

D’Funnybone – five time stakes winner and four times seven furlong winner with two wins over the likely favorite Discreetly Mine (bounce candidate)

Bulldogger and Bank Merger are both stepping way up in class over impressive wins during their short careers, if either can win you get 5-1 or better

Race 12 - Travers' Stakes

Fly Down – should see a hot pace in front of him and has the ability to engulf the front runners with one strong move…the single

The $1 Pick Four Play: 7-9/1-6/3-5-6/8 for $36. Good luck with all your wagers!


  1. Mine is 1,7,8 + 2,5,6 + 2,4,6 + 1,2,5 for $81. BALLSy play singling Fly Down!

  2. Denis,

    For me I'm willing to single the Travers to keep my ticket reasonable and I feel it gives me the best chance to get lucky. If you look at the PPs again, check the pace of the race - Miner's Reserve will have to go from the inside and Super Saver will have to go from the outside with several others like A Little Warm taking up the pace. If I'm right ,this leads to fast fractions from many horses that have yet to travel 10 furlongs successfully.

    Obviously, you can make a case for Super Saver and Ice Box to get the 1 1/4 miles, but something tells me the Churchill track, the wet conditions or it was just their day on Derby Day and each will probably not return to that form. This leaves me with Fly Down as the only legit closer to take it all.

    I really don't like to go beyond $48 on my Pick 4 tix unless I feel this is a very big return in store.

  3. Ugh, nothing I can't stand more than being knocked out in the first leg of the Pick 4, especially when a decent price wins the second leg.

  4. Tony,

    FLY DOWN nearly cost me the pick 3 on a value $12 (3x2x2) ticket...he was best considering ground loss and the speed-favoring nature of the track today. I didn't believe he'd put forth this kind of effort off that dull-looking 5th last out. LOOKIN AT LUCKY has the 3y.o. crown locked up now and I believe he'd have demolished this crew.

    I got back too late from a swim meet to bet the pick 4...the two I liked were the winner RAPPORT and BEYONDALLBOUNDARIES. Oh well, a win's a win and helps the account.