Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Kentucky Derby 138 Field Just About Set

What follows is your likely Kentucky Derby Field in order of graded stakes earnings - the top 20 get in. Of course, I provide a brief commentary on each entry. Enjoy...

Hansen – fast, sometimes too fast and headstrong; he almost guarantees a fast Derby pace

Daddy Long Legs – the Dubai to Derby record is poor; for me he’s a toss

Union Rags – beautiful specimen, never out of the money, but sometimes erratic stretch runs make me nervous

Dullahan – I think he’s grossly overrated; this field is much better than the one Animal Kingdom beat moving from turt-to-synethtic-to-dirt

Creative Cause – blinkers on-blinkers off never a good move before Derby Day just ask Stay Thirsty

Gemologist – unbeaten and solid Churchill Downs form, he’ll be on top of my tickets

Sabercat – Delta Downs winners usually don’t make it this far, so consider this a moral victory

Take Charge Indy – Calvin Borel in the saddle guarantees low odds for FL Derby winner

Bodemeister – speed figures say he just might break the “no win at 2” jinx

I’ll Have Another – two straight Left Coast stakes victories, but also two dream trips

Daddy Nose Best – beat second-tier Derby contenders in New Mexican desert, but I like him

Liasion – lots of success at two; none at three

Alpha – any setbacks on the way to Derby bother me; like him, don’t love him

Prospective – no horse has won Derby finishing less than fifth in final prep; he finished sixth in Blue Grass

Trinniberg – looks like, runs like and was breed to be a…sprinter; which means he probably finishes in the money

Done Talking – will have no say in outcome; too slow

Went the Day Well – I bet on Animal Kingdom and you sir are no Animal Kingdom

Rousing Sermon – the connections take him because has the earnings, never a good idea

Mark Valeski – nothing wrong with two strong seconds, except Fair Grounds doesn’t really produce Derby winners

El Padrino – failed to fire in FL Derby when caught wide, needs a perfect trip running with 19 others...doubtful

Well, that's it for now...I'll be blogging and producing video for Horse Nation from Churchill...just 10 days away 

1 comment:

  1. I love the contender commentaries! :)
    I'm still on Union Rags right now but there's so many good ones that have me intrigued. Hansen would be a fun winner and Bodemeister looks really good but I'm not sure he's ready to rate kindly in a 20 horse field.
    I'll Have Another and Trinniberg are starting to catch my interest...especially I'll Have Another.

    Have fun at the Derby, I'll be looking forward to seeing those videos on HRN! :)

    ~Brian Appleton~