Saturday, May 5, 2012

Kentucky Derby 138 - The Bet

With about 90 minutes to go to the 138 Kentucky Derby, I will share with the few, the proud, the followers of this blog - a Derby bet I'm making with some friends of mine. But I get ahead of myself...

First and foremost, you need to decide the type of bet you're making today. For me, the Derby is all about the superfecta - trying to correctly pick the top of four finishers. It is an difficult extremely bet and one, in which, I have just missed the last two years, correctly picking three of the top four. (Check out my blog post from Kentucky 137, when had all but Mucho Macho Man in third in the superfecta that cost $216.) The bet, by the way, has paid anywhere from $3,500 to more than $200,000 the last 15 years. So with a few near misses in hand, I came up with a strategy - bet many more and include my friends to support the ticket. 

Today, I have a $406 bankroll (8 of us at $50 a piece for $400), and I am actually tossing in the extra  $6 for the play including the following horses...

My top four:

#6 Bodemeister (4-1) - named after the trainer's son, Bode. Run away winner of Arkansas Derby...the only draw back, he'd be the first Derby winner, not to have won a race at 2 years old since Apollo in 1882.

#8 Creative Cause (12-1) - never out of the money in eight lifetime starts

#10 Daddy Nose Best (15-1) - two-time stakes winner, running under the radar and we'll probably be closer to 25-1 or higher; he's my big bomb

#15 Gemologist (6-1) - five starts, five wins - enough said...

All six of these will occupy spots in the bet:

#3 Take Charge Indy (15-1) - must include because his jockey has won the Derby 3 of the last five years

#4 Union Rags (9-2) - possible favorite, never out of the money in six lifetime starts, $1 million winner

#5 Dullahan (8-1) - reluctantly I put him in, sometimes you have include those you don't necessarily like

#11 Alpha (15-1) - good bet to make a move into contention late in the race

#13 Went the Day Well (20-1) - I can't quite decide on this one, so he's got to go on the ticket

#14 Hansen (10-1) - 2-year-old champ, almost ghost-white in color, maybe overlooked because he lost his last race

There's 20 in the race, but if we bet them all, we'd have to come up with $166,000...

Just a note, speed is holding up, so I feel fairly confident that the speed with hold for second, third and fourth. 

Here's the play and the combinations that will cost $406:


Good luck with whatever you play...

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