Friday, April 10, 2009

Arkansas Derby/Blue Grass

Arkansas Derby will either show Old Fashioned getting back to his winning ways or another bomb arriving on the Derby Road. 

Old Fashioned has yet to run back to his 2-year-old form (according to Beyer numbers), which is not a good sign. Leg weary late in Rebel, the guess here is that new jock rates behind Papa Clem attempting  to reserve Old Fashioned's fortunes. I give him a 50/50 chance at winning. 

Win Willy is set to bounce, period. 

Danger to Society is trained by Rick Dutrow Jr. and love him or hate him his first-time with a horse win percentage is over 30 percent. That alone gives this entry a chance, so I will.

Among the bombs that might beat Old Fashioned yet again, I like these two
  • Ziegfeld - first time blinkers for lightly raced colt
  • Captain Cherokee - half to Midnight Lute
The Blue Grass is a dart board handicapping event. I see no one as a standout. Besides these tosses - Cliffy's Future, Loch Dubh and General Quarters - anyone of the eight remaining runners has a chance. According to Gary Stevens on HRTV's Pursuit of the Crown, Keenland is holding up speed. If this is true, go with Join in the Dance.


  1. Tony,
    Sorry so long between comments.

    Great stuff on Mullins, the Derby list.

    As for today, Arkansas Derby analysis solid. I make OF 25% to hit the board, no chance by me for the win. Love PAPA CLEM. If WILLY bounces, will his name go back to WIN WILLY if he starts in the Derby? I'm waiting for CAPTAIN CHEROKEE to sprint like his big bro...the CHEROKEE RUN blood on top may limit his stamina.

    Blue Grass advice: When "talent" says speed is holding up, expect a cavalry charge to the first turn and a runner to win from off the pace. Still, JOIN IN THE DANCE looks like solid value but and may hold an important condition edge on CHARITABLE MAN. I'm going for mid-pack runner PATENA.

    Good luck.

  2. Here's the problem with my blogging - no editor except myself. Maybe you could proof for me? Thanks for keeping me honest.

  3. I've added you on my blog roll...I hope you can get a little traffic from it.