Saturday, April 18, 2009

Channeling the Derby Part One

With less than two weeks to go my process of picking a Kentucky Derby winner has begun. 

The build up to the first Saturday in May comes with so much hype and hyperbole eliminating the static in search of the Derby winner goes far beyond handicapping. To land on the right horse when almost all of America is a horse racing fan takes more than skill, guile and speed figures. It takes karma, chi, balance, harmony and peace in a less than peaceable world. I believe to pluck a Derby winner from a full field with humongous betting pools, I have to work as conduit and channel my strength, energy and ignorance towards a single-minded goal.

This takes work and should not be left to the final minutes before post, although I've seen that work from time to time...for some else. I start by reading everything and believing only some of it. I sort through morning workouts - most which will be good, some fantastic and a couple dreadful. Realizing that most morning works don't translate to afternoon success. 

I also know that any and all analysis will need adjustment based upon post, rider changes and weather. Better to be prepared when conditions require last minute changes, than to be caught flat-footed (unless of course, you're a horse named I Want Revenge, which really didn't seem to matter).

Currently I am pouring over DRF past performances in the first part of my channeling process. This is what I know:
  • There will be at least ten automatic tosses (since the top 20 is still fluid I'll wait to announce who's out in my mind)
  • With connections sending horses that qualify for "non-winners of one" to the Derby there is a chance for real catastrophe at worst and traffic trouble at best
  • At least three horses will be overrated and over bet
  • At least two horses will be forgotten and be an overlay
All this being written, as of today, I'm down to five to top my exacta and trifecta tickets. Without further ado, they are in no particular order and without explanation:
  • Dunkirk
  • I Want Revenge
  • Quality Road
  • Regal Ransom
  • Friesan Fire 
Now I must hit my gong a few hundred more times, practice my Eagle Pose and start watching season one of Kung Fu...

1 comment:

  1. Season 2 of Kung Fu had the best piece on handicapping.