Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Channeling the Derby Part Two

As cliche as it sounds (and is) pace makes the race. And in the Derby, the pace begins when the gates open with 20 fast, energetic horses charging into the first turn.

While my karma and choices haven't changed much with today's draw, I did see some curious post position choices. Pioneerof the Nile and Dunkirk at posts 15 and 16 with much of the board open either speaks to extreme confidence or fear of inside posts, which in this case means anything under number 9 or 14-12. Now last year with superior speed and a weak field, Big Brown could have started from the stands and still won, but this isn't last year. I feel these draws help my choices and here's why.
  • All five horses inside Friesan Fire (Post 6) come from well off the pace, meaning Friesan Fire's jock my angle over to the rail while staying as close to the pace as he wants. I find it hard to believe no one else sees this.
  • Papa Clem in Post 7 and Join in the Dance in Post 9 are likely to go for the lead. With a pedestrian work that tired Papa Clem badly, I see him as dead wood and likely starting to back up after six furlongs. Join in the Dance is here to set a pace for Dunkirk, period and he's not particularly fast. Another likely to clog the lanes.
  • Regal Ransom was wisely placed just outside of Join in the Dance and if he's good enough will be following the speed closest to the outside.
  • If all three break alertly - Chocolate Candy, General Quarters and I Want Revenge should be able to fall in just behind the early speed. As long as they have room to move, they will do so as the first stalkers to pounce. 
  • These horses are not Big Brown - Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile and Desert Party. Dunkirk will face traffic and is an unlikely winner, but worth some plays in exotics. If Pioneerof the Nile pulls early, he is likely to be caught four-wide gunning for the lead or five-to-six wide in the second flight. He will have an outside chance in the five-path, I just don't think he's good enough. Desert Party will probably be slamming dancing himself out of contention early.
With the post draw behind us, the only remaining X-factor is the weather. At this point, I'm toying with some trifecta par wheels. Something like:
  • 13/6-10-11-12-15/6-10-11-12-14-15-16 for $30 on a $1 Tri Par Wheel
In a Pick Four not yet hammered out and starting with Race 8, I'm thinking something like this:
  • 1-3-6-7/3-5-9/2-6/6-10-12-13 for $48 on a 50-cent bet
More channeling necessary...

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