Thursday, April 16, 2009

The 100 Beyer

There are many written and unwritten rules in finding a Derby winner; must start at two, needs three, 3-year-old races (opps, Big Brown), must be a stalking-type and should fire a 100-Beyer or more while routing. Of all these rules, I'm buying the 100-Beyer over all else. Looking at this year's field this would leave me with:
  • I Want Revenge (113)
  • Quality Road (113)
  • Dunkirk (108)
  • Friesan Fire (104)
  • Win Willy (102)
  • General Quarters (102)
  • West Side Bernie (101)
At this point - more than two weeks out - here's my thoughts:
  • Quality Road's quarter crack bothers me
  • Win Willy won't duplicate his Rebel win; he was 50-1.
  • General Quarters' big number was on synthetic, I think? If so, I'll pass.
This leaves me with I Want Revenge, Dunkirk, Freisan Fire (who may go unnoticed on Derby Day) and West Side Bernie. How about a $1 superfecta box on these four? 

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