Monday, April 27, 2009

Works Lead to Some Answers

I have never been a big "works" handicapper. I have always figured that the horses before a race are either good enough or they're not. But listening to Mike Welsh's reports from Churchill have been captivating, entertaining and somewhat influential for me in a few ways. Here are some of my feelings based on Mike's reports:
  • Like him or not, Pioneerof the Nile has done nothing wrong in his works...except not work as fast as Baffert horse's usually work
  • Papa Clem, General Quarters, Square Eddie and Win Willy have either looked tired or showed some wear in slow works
  • Mine That Bird and Summer Bird probably just aren't good enough
  • Musket Man and West Side Bernie aren't looking like a mile and quarter horses
  • I'm still not sure what to make of Hold Me Back and Chocolate Candy
  • The Dubai to Derby connections look great
  • Friesan Fire's fast work equals second place again for Jones?
  • Dunkirk and I Want Revenge haven't move up or down for me
Using this data has only really changed my mind to include Hold Me Back underneath and maybe just maybe, based on post position, I'll include Pioneerof the Nile under exacta and trifecta plays.

My top choices are still I Want Revenge, Friesan Fire and Regal Ransom.

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