Saturday, April 25, 2009

Who Will Make the Gate?

Looking back over my Baker's Dozen choices the past three months, I really haven't hit the nail on the head. Here's why:
  • From February - Only three horses remain, some awlful choices like Notonthesamepage, Haynesfield and Flying Pegasus.
  • From March - Really not that much better with four horses that remain, three horses on the list were injured.
  • From April - You would think I would have at least named ten starters at this point. I was getting cute with Big Drama and Rachel Alexandra though. 
If I had to pat myself on the back, it would be for identifying I Want Revenge as a possible Derby contender, but that and two bucks gets me a cup of coffee. 

I'll probably end up off Quality Road, even if he goes. To win the Derby there can be no setbacks, no matter how minor.

One final thought, if Rachel Alexandra is in the Derby she'd be third or fourth choice - sandwiched somewhere between Pioneerof the Nile, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire and Quality Road.


  1. I'll also leave a comment on your prior post.

    RE: QR...POINT GIVEN was a big Derby favorite (shoulda' been a Trip Crown winner!) and floundered on the concrete that substituted for a main track but rebounded to take the Preakness and Belmont along with the Haskell and Travers to be champion 3y.o. and HOY in '01. His problem...a quarter crack.

    No way RACHEL tackles these tough boys...did you see the shiner on I WANT REVENGE??? Aftermath of getting caste in his stall yet he's playing during his bath like Rocky Balboa getting sponged in the 15th round vs. Apollo Creed. He's yet to defeat PIONEEROF THE NILE. There's also a GENERAL, some MAN with a MUSKET, and battle tested DUNKIRK. Then there's something about a RANSOM at a Dubai PARTY, a FIRE storm coming north from Louisiana, and some PAPA named CLEM who used OLD FASHIONED tactics to keep the Arkansas Derby field in order. These boys as a whole are just too rough, even for an amazon!!!

  2. Amateurcapper,

    Horse racing is a tough business, no doubt. I was speculating that if RA was in the race she'd be the third or fourth choice, period. I also think she'd be competitive, but that is just my opinion.

    QR's quarter crack bothers me, as I stated.

    As to the previous post, I agree totally about post position and will make plans accordingly. Still POTN, who has won four straight, doesn't appear fast enough in a Beyers sort of way and I'm following that recent history to dismiss - at my own peril. As far as Dunkirk, I'm following both recent and ancient history without any two-year-old starts and trying to win the Derby so soon - that's why I'm putting him underneath.

    I really like Regal Ransom, more so based on his work yesterday. Just a choice I'm making. Desert Party's laid-back demeanor reminds me of Curlin and who knows maybe he goes in a few plays as well.

    I know, you know that we can't bet them all. Horse playing is based upon opinions we act on. These are just a few of mine.