Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Some Early Decisions

Here they are, but with a chance of late changes depending on weather, post positions and works...
  • Pioneerof the Nile - off all tickets, I just don't think he's fast enough
  • Dunkirk - underneath in exacta and trifecta plays, ala Curlin
  • I Want Revenge - right now, underneath, worried he already ran his races and peaked too soon
These three top the ticket right now:
  • Quality Road - just too hard to ignore three triple-digit Beyer scores
  • Friesan Fire - Jones knows how to get them ready and may get the winner's share
  • Regal Ransom - loose on the lead, desert to bluegrass prep scenario has play out someday
On the fence, somewhere in the top three:
  • Papa Clem - post draw outside Regal Ransom, Quality Road or Join in the Dance (who's likely to get in) enhance chances
  • Chocolate Candy looks to be a useful play underneath
  • Musket Man, West Side Bernie and General Quarters may be used to round out trifectas or superfectas
OK here are my tosses, as in out:
  • Desert Party - beaten by stablemate
  • Hold Me Back - synthetic surface specialist
  • Mine That Bird - really?
  • Pioneerof the Nile - reminds me of Nobiz Like Shobiz
  • Square Eddie - ran out of time and probably needs another race to be at best
  • Win Willy - Arkansas Derby flop despite fast fractions to follow
  • Flying Private, Mr. Hot Stuff and Summer Bird - all still qualify for allowance conditions and will create traffic problems
  • Join in the Dance - possible pace factor up to a mile


  1. I am trying to throw out POTN and having a hard time ignoring that he's already beaten Papa Clem and Revenege. The reports from this week's workouts suggest POTN is moving well on dirt.

    This is such a competitive field and I enjoyed reading your post. Good luck with the exotics. I'll be trying a few myself next weekend!

    Keith - Triple Dead Heat

  2. Keith,

    Thanks for stopping by.

    I'm trying to think of Pionnerof the Nile as a really good grass horse. With Quality Road probably out or less than perfect, POTN might end up in some of my exotic bets.


  3. Tony,

    Isn't it a bit premature to take such a hard stand? After all, post position draws may have a big effect on this year's result.

    If REGAL RANSOM is in your top 3, how can you dismiss DESERT PARTY completely one week out? A colt who beat him twice and was cutting into his lead late in the UAE Derby not even for exotics consideration?

    Following the same line of thinking, how can you eliminate DUNKIRK from "saver" status in exotics considering the scare he gave QR, earning his own solid 108 Beyer in the process. Considering the QR hoof issues, wouldn't it be sound to include the colt that would have been the Kentucky Derby favorite if he'd won the Florida Derby?

    FRIESAN FIRE, well he's on a win streak but I'm thinking professional basketball analogy. Do you recall my Lakers suffering through the "Memorial Day Massacre" at the hands of the Celtics in 1985? There are times that a hot team (11-2) enters a playoff series with rest over a squad that worked harder in the regular season or prior series (Celts went 11-4) This year there's DUNKIRK vs. QR and his earnings drama, QR and his quarter cracks, I WANT REVENGE's eventful Wood trip and stall mishap, PotN vs. a false pace in his final preps, PAPA CLEM stalking mid-pack and passing horses for the first time in Arkansas, and BC runner-up SQUARE EDDIE's shin fracture, short preparation). FF's one of the top four, I penned as much recently. However, I'm having a hard time putting him #1 when he was considered #2 by Larry Jones until stablemate OLD FASHIONED got hurt in the Arkansas Derby. My post is on Bloodhorse this weekend; one comment had FF keyed in the two hole which is an interesting betting angle.