Leg one (Race 6), Shakertown Stakes: At 5 1/2 furlongs, you better toss a few in the mix. I'm going with three: Hewitts (10-1 ML) and Mr. Nightlinger (5-2) to both go to the front. I'm thinking one of them may hold on, but if not Hero's Reward (5-1) may just pick up all the pieces. Big question: Will Nightlinger fire off six-month layoff?
Leg two, Commonwealth Stakes: Seven furlongs is a tricky distance, so you need to have some success at the distance or at least have lead at seven furlongs when traveling farther. There's five good choices out of the eight listed, but I'm going with Eternal Star (9-2) and Ravalo (5-1). I think one of these two will strike the front and not look back. I'm banking on two things here, that my top choices won't get in a speed duel and Rebellion will not fire back to his '08 form when winning this race.
Leg three, Jenny Wiley Stakes: I'm thinking all class here with Female Turf Champion, Forever Together (even) and hard-knocker Backseat Rhythm (5-1). Those looking to spoil this leg are the ever-capable, I Lost My Choo and Rutherienne, the former scares me more.
Final leg, Blue Grass Stakes: You can make a case for just about every horse in the field. Hey, if you've got the money, hit the all button in this leg. For me, I'm banking on what, former jockey and current horse racing analyst, Gary Stevens said about Keenland's track - that it's playing more like the old dirt surface, favoring early speed. As a result, I go with Patena (10-1), Join in the Dance (10-1) and Massone (12-1), all who will either be on or close to the lead.
For a buck, it's a $36 or half that at $18 for 50 cents.
It seems like you hit this thing, congrats on the score.
ReplyDeleteGreat analysis! I hope your bankroll allowed you to hit "all" in the Blue Grass.
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