Saturday, March 19, 2011

Fear The Factor in The Rebel

Really, Bob Baffert shipping in with an improving 3-year-old, shouldn't that be enough to capture our attention? Sure The Factor will be the favorite in what, at first look, appears to be a wide open field. I say, the field is widely unpredictable, but only when considering who will finish second and third.

Here are the reasons to back The Factor:

  • Besides maiden winner, Saratoga Red, there is absolutely no speed to contend with The Factor. Even if Saratoga Red goes with The Factor, he'll probably stop after a half while facing winners for the first time.
  • The Factor is liable to get away with fractions of :24, :48 and 1:11 - if he is loose, as I suspect, then he is gone.
  • Baffert believes in his little horse. If you look at the works leading up to today's start - two six furlong jobs (bullets, mind you) - he's trying to build a bottom into The Factor. Baffert is giving the horse every right to improve and show he can go two-turns. I don't think 1 1/16 miles is outside his ability. Watch the jog out after the wire in San Vincente - The Factor never lets Sway Away get by him.
My suggestion: Play a trifecta or superfecta key wheel with The Factor on top of Archarcharch, Alternation, J P's Gusto, Caleb's Posse and Elite Alex. Six bucks for a 10-cent super key wheel - why not? 


  1. I'm with you but I think Sway Away may be a bit better. You've got a nice touch with these things so I respect the thoughts. I'm really enjoying The Factor this year and if he does win today, wow. Alternation seems interesting too, who knows, thats why this Rebel looks pretty darn good.

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  3. There is no way The Factor will go that slow. He will pull and pull, even with no competition around him. Agree with you that there is no speed, but if he wins gate-to-wire, it's more likely to be 23:30 - 46:55 - 1:10:30 - 1:35:10 - 1:42:27.

    (Yes, I'm saying that the final 5/16ths will be run in almost 32 seconds)

  4. Thanks Turk and TenCent for stopping by...

    Sway Away looks to me to be a closer of sprints, not routes, but if The Factor goes as fast as TenCent thinks, well he'll get a sprinters pace to close into and we'll see.

    Remember we can't underestimate how capable Baffert is getting his three-year-olds to run so well stretching out - Conveyance ring a bell?

    I put my "bet" in at KnightSkyRacing and I've got Elite Alex and Caleb's Posse in my Road to Roses Stable, so I may just be watching today...

    BTW Turk I always check your post before big race Pick 4s and TenCent - you my friend have a hot hand these days...

  5. Good points by Tony, the Turk and Mr. 10 Cent. I love the Factor but I put my money on Sway Away with Alteration underneath. I wonder if Baffert is looking at this as a One in done for the Factor. He is shows it today or he is off the Derby Trail

  6. I agree w/ Chris, no way THE FACTOR can go that slow. If Garcia tries to, he'll fight the colt every step.

    Their best chance is to let him roll a la CONVEYANCE in the Southwest a year ago.

    I also went w/ SWAY AWAY and love SPA's ALTERNATION underneath. Also, J.P.'s GUSTO should be given a look as he had more trouble than the distance he was beaten in the Southwest.

  7. TenCent pretty good call on the fractions, scary...The Factor is fast, Baffert just might be able to get him to carry his speed 10 furlongs or at least hang around long enough on Derby Day to hound Uncle Mo and soften up the anointed Triple Crown winner

  8. Excellent stand you took on The Factor Tony, you look like the genius now, great job!