Betting the Kentucky Derby is both fascinating and frustrating...always lucrative, if you could only hit it.
The Derby will still be lucrative, even this year if Uncle Mo walks into the starting gate at even money - there's always plenty of 30-1 shots that can find their way into the deep exotic - trifecta and superfecta - tickets.
I find the Future Pools to be just plain frustrating. First of all, your horse has it to make the gate - physically and fiscally (enough graded stakes earnings). There are plenty of entries in Pool 2 yet to make the top 20 in graded stakes earnings and a few like Runflatout, Silver Medallion and Machen unlikely to get there. So any monies tossed their way would have been better used in trying to hit tonight's late double at Mountaineer.
But just like the Derby there are grossly overplayed horses and a few hidden jewels that would have been worth playing. So allow me to look back and forward through Derby Pool 2...
Tosses at any price: Archarcharach (closed at 50-1), Astrology (53-1), Comma to the Top (85-1), Gourmet Dinner (42-1), Machen (68-1), Runflatout (31-1), Silver Medallion (31-1) The Factor (32-1).
Intriguing Plays: Anthony's Cross (45-1), Elite Alex (31-1), JP's Gusto (61-1), Rogue Romance (36-1), Stay Thirsty (25-1), Sweet Ducky (75-1)
Possible Derby starters close to their probable Derby morning line, so why bother playing two months away: Dialed In (11-1), Santiva (31-1), Soldat (13-1), Sway Away (18-1)
Possible Underlays: To Honor and Serve (14-1), Mucho Macho Man (28-1), and Uncle Mo (3-1)
Let's simply take the betting advice above and parlay it into a Derby 137 $1 superfecta ticket:
To Honor and Serve, Mucho Macho Man and Uncle Mo over these three again over Soldat, Dialed In, Santiva and Sway Away over Anthony's Cross, Elite Alex, JP's Gusto, Rogue Romance, Stay Thirsty and Sweet Ducky.
If you're going to look into the future for betting, why not go big? I'll take a look back at this
$144 ticket on May 8, 2011. Good luck until then!
Great advice Tony.
ReplyDeleteI didn't get involved but it looks like G.II winner ANTHONY'S CROSS is an attractive price considering he could finish in the top 3 and still make the gate. If that happens, he won't be 45-1. In fact, at allhorseracing.com he's 25-1.
If going by that site, the underlays in parimutual pool vs. rebate pool:
ARCHARCHARCH 50-1 (65-1 at allhorseracing.com)
SILVER MEDALLION 31-1 (40-1)
Overlays:
ANTHONY'S CROSS 45-1 (25-1 at allhorseracing.com)
ASTROLOGY 53-1 (22-1)
COMMA TO THE TOP 85-1 (40-1)
DIALED IN 11-1 (6-1)
ELITE ALEX 31-1 (20-1)
GOURMET DINNER 42-1 (20-1)
JP'S GUSTO 61-1 (25-1)
MACHEN 68-1 (22-1)
MUCHO MACHO MAN 28-1 (12-1)
ROGUE ROMANCE 36-1 (25-1)
SANTIVA 31-1 (19-1)
SWEET DUCKY 75-1 (50-1)
THE FACTOR 32-1 (18-1)
No/minimal difference in odds:
RUNFLATOUT 31-1 (30-1)
SOLDAT 13-1 (10-1)
STAY THIRSTY 25-1 (20-1)
SWAY AWAY 18-1 (18-1)
TO HONOR AND SERVE 14-1 (15-1)
UNCLE MO 3-1 (3-1)
My Pool 1 exactas w/ UNCLE MO over ANTHONY'S CROSS, ASTROLOGY, SANTIVA, and SILVER MEDALLION are still alive and kickin'...for now ;-) !
That brings me to a question about these kinds of rebate houses...are they legal?
Sadly, yes. I read about it over at the Paulik Report not too long ago... at least I think it was Paulick...
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