Betting the Kentucky Derby is both fascinating and frustrating...always lucrative, if you could only hit it.
The Derby will still be lucrative, even this year if Uncle Mo walks into the starting gate at even money - there's always plenty of 30-1 shots that can find their way into the deep exotic - trifecta and superfecta - tickets.
I find the Future Pools to be just plain frustrating. First of all, your horse has it to make the gate - physically and fiscally (enough graded stakes earnings). There are plenty of entries in Pool 2 yet to make the top 20 in graded stakes earnings and a few like Runflatout, Silver Medallion and Machen unlikely to get there. So any monies tossed their way would have been better used in trying to hit tonight's late double at Mountaineer.
But just like the Derby there are grossly overplayed horses and a few hidden jewels that would have been worth playing. So allow me to look back and forward through Derby Pool 2...
Tosses at any price: Archarcharach (closed at 50-1), Astrology (53-1), Comma to the Top (85-1), Gourmet Dinner (42-1), Machen (68-1), Runflatout (31-1), Silver Medallion (31-1) The Factor (32-1).
Intriguing Plays: Anthony's Cross (45-1), Elite Alex (31-1), JP's Gusto (61-1), Rogue Romance (36-1), Stay Thirsty (25-1), Sweet Ducky (75-1)
Possible Derby starters close to their probable Derby morning line, so why bother playing two months away: Dialed In (11-1), Santiva (31-1), Soldat (13-1), Sway Away (18-1)
Possible Underlays: To Honor and Serve (14-1), Mucho Macho Man (28-1), and Uncle Mo (3-1)
Let's simply take the betting advice above and parlay it into a Derby 137 $1 superfecta ticket:
To Honor and Serve, Mucho Macho Man and Uncle Mo over these three again over Soldat, Dialed In, Santiva and Sway Away over Anthony's Cross, Elite Alex, JP's Gusto, Rogue Romance, Stay Thirsty and Sweet Ducky.
If you're going to look into the future for betting, why not go big? I'll take a look back at this
$144 ticket on May 8, 2011. Good luck until then!