Sunday, April 24, 2011

13 Ways to Blow Your Kentucky Derby Bet

With just 13 days until the Kentucky Derby and in the spirit of American poet, Wallace Stevens, allow me to expound on the 13 ways that you can and most likely will ruin your Kentucky Derby bet(s):

  1. Too many experts listened a couple, toss the rest. Most of the frenzy in the days leading up to the Derby is just white noise. Take my man, The Turk's advice and create your own odds and top choices sans The Daily Racing Form and morning line.
  2. Keep morning works in other words listen to Daily Racing Form's Mike Welsch with his daily reports. The man is spot on and is one of the two that informs my Derby bet.
  3. Betting too much...sure adding one more horse to your superfectat key (1x5x6x10), may increase your odds of hitting incrementally, but it's going to end up costing a pretty penny and with this field the return on your investment is unlikely.
  4. Betting too little...sure it condradicts number 3, but you should pick a dollar amount you're comfortable betting (losing) and then just going with it. Whether that is $50 or $500, choose the amount and try not to deveate.
  5. Complicating your bets with too many combinations and betting against yourself...if you're wheeling Dialed In on top for a trifecta, don't take your gambling money and bet against Dialed In for "saver" bets in case he doesn't win. Go with your gut and cross your fingers for a safe and clear Derby trip.
  6. Following a screening process to arrive at a winner...many "experts" have come up with criteria for thier Derby choices, which usually includes 10 to 20 factors to be checked off. The horses with the most or least checks (depending on the system) gets the nod for their wagers. Too much has already occured with this cohort of horses to follow any such rules. Pick your winner based on past performances, human connections, breeding, whatever you decide, but please put the screening on the shelf for Derby 137.
  7. Wait until the last minute to make your wagers...procrasination in betting almost always causes harm - suddenly you end up tossing in a few more numbers as you wait in the betting window line or as you tap away at your computer. Come up with some bets the night before and make a few necessary adjustments in the hours leading up to the Derby. I suggest you make all wagers after the post parade, if you feel obligated to wait.
  8. Not tossing horses a few days before the Derby...look, just as there will be a few horses you really like, there's got to be a few you dislike enough to remove from consideration. Do yourself the favor and cross these horses off your list of bets and don't look back.
  9. Including "wiseguy" horses in your bets...the second you hear anyone mention a horse as a "wiseguy" horse make it one of your tosses. Please, I'm begging you.
  10. Attend the Derby or a Derby party...listen being at Churchill is great for the few that go every year and attending a party with friends may be fun, but both will mess with your bets. If you're doing either make your bets early, like at noon, and then sit back and enjoy.
  11. Drinking while wagering...listen maybe "a" beer helps clarify your thinking, but any more than 2 will add to your confusion. 
  12. Go against a hunch...especially this year and with this field. Play the birthdays, numbers from dreams (I just had one recently), a horse that has the same name as your dog or favorite poem, anything, I say go with it!
  13. Don't bet...obvious I know, but the year Street Sense won, I came up with an inexpensive $24 Pick 4 ending with Street Sense as the single. It was a 2x3x4x1 play and thought it unlikely to hit, so I sat on it. That little wager would have returned more than $2,000 if my memory serves me well.

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