Thursday, November 5, 2009

Breeders' Cup - Saturday

Instead of going blow-by-blow throughout the Breeders' Cup program, let me just give you my early and late Pick 4s. Do what you like with them....

Early Pick 4:

Juvenile Turf - It's hard to get a single anywhere, but why not one here.
  • #11 Interactif has found his footing on the sod with two wins and two tries. He overcame much trouble in Keenland win which gives me confidence in this large field.
Turf Sprint - Down the hill, full field with a funky dogleg and crossing fake dirt momentarily, yea this is an easy race to handicap. You've got to go with some horses that have the "downhill" experience, so:
  • #1 Noble Court is stakes-placed in last three starts and won down the hill four back, real chance at good price.
  • #2 Silver Timber has been a monster since being claimed for $25,000 earlier this year - three wins and a second including two Grade 3 wins, comes west and may or may not take to hill including on the ticket just in case.
  • #3 California Flag goes quickly, last year too quickly in this very race - 20 and 3/5 for the first quarter! Hopefully, he goes a little slower and gets the win gate-to-wire.
  • #7 Gotta Have Her is 4-for-4 on the hill - enough said.
  • #14 Delta Storm gets a break in the final post as the turning, twisting start actually helps his cause. The other old man of the group has two triple digit Beyers in his last three starts.
The Sprint - single with Zensational???
  • #1 Zensational does the rail matter that much...only if Fatal Bullet goes with him. Still he may be the fastest horse in here.
  • #5 Gayego is 4-for-4 at the distance and will close into whatever fractions are thrown up.
  • #8 Capt. Candyman Can is a tough customer with three 100 plus Beyers in a row and just missed catching Fatal Bullet in last.
The Juvenile - A chance to take a shot against the chalk breaking from the 13-hole
  • #4 Noble's Promise - three wins on three different surfaces at three different tracks with rising Beyers along the way.
  • #6 Pulsion - Got caught way wide and bulled his way through the stretch in Norfolk. Lookin At Lucky had the better post that day, but on Saturday.
  • #9 Aikenite has gotten good fast and will close late.
Early Pick Four Play: 11/1-2-3-7-14/1-5-8/4-6-9 for $36

Now for the Late Pick Four:

The Mile - Euros vs. Yanks, I'm going with more Yanks than Puddle-Jumpers while leaving Goldikova out. The 11-post is will take huge effort, and I'm betting against on this alone.
  • #1 Court Vision's testicles now hang better and he runs better too. Dutrow is a master first time out and certainly should get some play here.
  • #3 Cowboy Cal is likely to get the lead and at a mile he may not relenquish it, besides Karelian to his outside isn't as fast.
  • #9 Gladiatorus got back on track in Italy (and really who doesn't?) He gets first-time Lasix and will likely be overlooked, worth inclusion at a price.
Dirt (?) Mile - The weakest field of the day, take the single...
  • #1 Mastercraftsman - most accomplished runner in here - 4-time Grade 1 winner. Everyone else is an alsoran.
The Turf - This time the Euros get the nod...
  • #2 Conduit - fourth in the Arc in last and first in last year's Turf will get a pace to run at with Presious Passion and Spanish Moon setting or pressing the pace.
  • #7 Spanish Moon should track behind Presious Passion and get first run at top of stretch.
The Classic - The Handicap division has been so weak this year that it's tempting to go with a Euro or 3-year-old. I'm just flat out spreading.
  • #2 Colonel John is on home turf and comes into this year's Classic in solid form.
  • #3 Summer Bird the second most impressive 3-year-old this season. A three-time winner at the Classic distance and seems to run on anything, but has yet to run on fake dirt.
  • #6 Richard's Kid may give Bob Baffert the perfect ending to a winning day. A late booming stud was rallying in 1/8-mile shorter Goodwin in last and will be aided by the extra distance.
  • #8 Einstein will be overlooked even though he took the Big 'Cap here in March. Tough as nails, he will run around and through horses to get to the line.
Late Pick 4: 1-3-9/1/2-7/2-3-6-8 for $24

That's it...

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