Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Friday's BC Pick Four

In looking at Friday's Breeders' Cup Late Pick 4, I feel you have to single either the Turf or Ladies Classic - to both keep the ticket affordable while providing you the best chance of hitting at least one long shot in what looks to be a pretty chalky four races. OK, here's my Late Pick Four for Friday.

Juvenile Fillies - A place in which any horse can improve 5-10 lengths without any notice.
  • #1 Zilva - Eligible for Non-Winners of 1, but after missing the break in Alciblad, rode the rail in traffic and had to race around a stopped horse before re-rallying in deep stretch to just miss third. A pretty good race for maiden winner and worth a shot at 30-1.
  • #3 Blind Luck made it look easy winning the Oak Leaf at Santa Anita last out and is likely to repeat.
  • #8 She Be Wild either got caught late or simply gave it up after making the front in the Alcibiad's. I'm going with the former and she will be getting a dream trip following likely pace setter, Connie and Michael.
Filly and Mare Turf - You either believe Forever Together repeats or you don't. After studying and re-studying the charts, I'm sticking with Forever Together, here's why...
  • #2 Forever Together is the single simply because she has shown the quickest turn of foot, will finish the fastest and is closest to meeting the Beyer par speed figure of 107. And to top it off, she's likely to be second or third choice behind Magical Fantasy and Midday.
Filly and Mare Sprint - I can see anyone of five horses taking this race and I'm looking to spread with all five.
  • #2 Sara Louise exploded onto the scene after a nine-month layoff to capture the Victory Ride at 'Toga and then finished second a head behind champion, Indian Blessing on her preferred dirt surface in Grade 2, Gallant Bloom. Tremendous upside gets you around 4-1.
  • #7 Informed Decision is 6-for-6 on fake stuff and 5-for-6 at tricky seven furlong distance. If you get more than 5-2, it's a gift.
  • #8 Seventh Street cuts back from routing and with such talent around one and two turns she has the ability to hold the front which she may inherit. If she gets loose and handles the Santa Anita synthetic - watch out! 5-1 win odds will balloon in the Pick 4.
  • #9 Ventura - I've gone back and forth on whether or not to include her, but with synthetic, distance and track success, tossing her is just plain foolish. Leave her on the ticket for protection, but hope for a longer price beating her to the wire.
Ladies Classic - Another place to single, if you dare. I don't.
  • #1 Careless Jewel looks to become the eighth three-year-old to capture this race. She is the quickest horse, gets the rail and will likely force favored Music Note to stalk her. Whether she wins or fades, she will have the most to say about the eventual outcome.
  • # 5 Proviso won the Grade 1 Spinster in last before the DQ after the curious wayward move in deep stretch. She's my closer if the top pair get locked into a speed duel up front.
  • #7 Music Note looks too strong to keep her off the ticket. She zipped through a 5 furlong breeze at Santa Anita in 59 and 2/5 seconds, so the track won't be a problem, how closely she must track Careless Jewel will be.
So here's the $1 Pick 4 for $36: 1-3-8/2/2-7-8-9/1-5-7. Good luck and I'll check in with Saturday's picks on Friday morning.

1 comment:

  1. Tony,

    Congrats on the new "foal" and sorry about the site...keep pluggin' along.

    I'm glad you're back here.

    Gonna key on MUSIC NOTE, MIDDAY, SARA LOUISE in the last three...the first three look wide open. Upset chances to MAN OF IRON in the Marathon, JUNIA TEPZIA and HATHEER in the Juvy Fillies Turf. BLIND LUCK goes same distance, same track in the Juvy Fillies which is an angle I like for backing favorites.

    BTW, you wrote five but listed only four in the F&M Sprint.

    Glad to have you back.