Saturday, January 30, 2010

Sunshine Millions/Gulfstream Late Pick 4

With the thermometer straining to reach 10 degrees just outside of Boston today, it's nice to at least have the Sunshine Millions to watch and wager on. With a 50-cent minimum, Gulfstream's late Pick 4 looks to be the most affordable play albeit most likely a modest pay out. I'm looking to limit the play for $2. Without further ado...

Race 7: A N1X Allowance on the turf features a full field of 12. This is usually the type of race I'd like to spread for some insurance, but I'm going to single instead. Dangerous maybe, but when you have the filly who came closest to catching Rachel Alexandra then, in my mind, you've got your single: Flying Spur. Bonus: With a field of 12, you're likely to get better than her 2-1 or 3-1 odds in the Pick 4.

Race 8: The Sprint features two heavy favorites going six furlongs. I'm going to respect both Pashito the Che and This Ones for Phil, by including them in wager. But I'm also going to include Accredit, who with the inside post and the ability to rip off a 22 and change first quarter, might just lead from gate to wire. At 6-1, he will be the key to whether a winning wager will be worth the play.

Race 9: Like the Sprint, the Distaff will have co-favorites in Sweet Repent and Jessica is Back, but I'll only include one of these on the ticket. With the unusual break from just off the clubhouse turn, Jessica is Back maybe put at just enough of a disadvantage leaving from the seven-hole to be compromised for the win. In addition with the lesser known connections of Braddy and Cruz, Sweet Repent will likely be the better price. For kicks and giggles, I'm tossing in Scolara, who makes only her second start on dirt for Bill Mott. The last time she made such a start was at Gulfstream, where she just missed in allowance company two years ago. She's also juicy at 12-1 and could close strongly in the top two or even, if Amazing, gets involved in a speed duel.

Race 10: The Turf will feature overwhelming favorite Soldier's Dancer, who will need at least some speed to run at and might just be caught chasing the likely on the loose leader, Jet Propulsion. If Leparoux can ration off Jet Propulsion's speed advantage through 24 second quarters, the seven-year-old will be tough to catch. While Wolfson, doesn't claim many (o-for-2 in such scenarios the past two years), like Richard Dutrow, he's really tough sending out horses first time (33% the last two years). Pickapocket scares me here and I'll add him just in case.

The play for 50-cent minimum: 5/3-4-6/4-8/8-10-11 for $9 or $36 if you play it for $2. Good luck and let's hope one of the long shots gets through for a decent payoff.


  1. Tony, fine job handicapping the P4. The single in leg 1 hurt, but but 3 of 4 ain't bad. I'm pretty sure you bet the P3 next race anyway. Keep swinging away.

  2. Thanks for stopping by...3 out of 4, story of most of my handicapping life. I'm looking at Gulfstream's Late Pick 4 right now. 1-3-4-9-10/2/6-7-11/5-7...just might play, maybe...