With the first of three Kentucky Derby Future Pools
offered this weekend, it's a good time to share a somewhat informed wagering
decision or better yet, one that requires little to no information at all.
First and foremost, we need to understand that the
Future Pool 1) ties up a portion of your betting money for 12 weeks without a
return and 2) the difficulty of picking a winner just minutes before post is amplified indefinitely when trying to turn the same trick three months in
advance. So if you don't mind taking a portion of what you bet and leaving it
on the shelf for weeks while realizing that your betting choice(s) may not even make
the starting gate, then go ahead and wager away this weekend.
The timing of this year's Future Pool #1 is curious
to say the least. The Hutcheson Stakes is the lone prep race this weekend that
may possibly influence your future bet(s). And besides, the Hutcheson, run at
seven furlongs, is hardly a bellwether for Derby success. So any and all wagers
are based on your perceptions of what is to come or the limited reality of
several early prep races. In either case, what you don't know is just as
important as what you do know - which is close to nothing.
Here's the whole bunch of nothing from the early
preps:
- Out of Bounds - sat a perfect trip behind an extremely fast pace in the Sham and beat only four rivals; so what
- Mr. Bowling - won over a crowded Lecomte Stakes field that started fast and ended slow; Fair Grounds hasn't produced a decent Derby finisher in years
- Algorithms - won in the Gulfstream slop while taking the Holy Bull Stakes over last year's champion two-year-old, Hansen; a wet surface win is a plus, but how good is Hansen really?
- Alpha - took the Withers in what amounted to a JV scrimmage; might come out of New York as the dominant horse; you'll have to go back to Funny Cide to find the last New York-based Derby winner
- Battle Hardened - who really isn't and won a stakes as a maiden; you'll have to ask, late-maiden monster or winner of extremely soft Sam Davis field?
- I'll Have Another - probably the most perplexing prep winner to date; came off a six-month layoff to win going away versus what appeared to be a very good Robert Lewis Stakes field
The surest thing left behind by these winners is the questions that outnumber any answers, like: How does beating
five opponents translate to beating 19 others? Will any horse ever leave
Louisiana ready to pounce in Kentucky? How much did I'll Have Another improve
or did he catch an overrated field ripe for the taking?
The little somethings we know from these do not
install enough confidence in me (and probably shouldn't instill such confidence
in you) to make a Future play this time around. In this case revel in your
ignorance and take a pass or....take the field.
Consider that taking the field gives you almost 400
options versus the pittance of choosing one or a few from 23.
By my account, all odds on individual choices would have to be over 100-1 to
garner the appropriate risk-reward. Also consider that "all other" Derby
nominees will probably land you around even money or a 100% return on your
investment.
Now consider that at a casino you get a little
under a 50-50 chance when picking one of the two main roulette wheel colors
(black or red) with the same even money return. (Of course there are two
green spots on the wheel to give the house their little edge.) In the Derby
pool it is your 400 "all other" choices vs. 23 individuals for the possibility of an almost certain even money pay off.
Finally, you don't need to know anything about any of the "all
others" to determine which one will win the Derby. And if you can get
anything close to even money, it's worth your time and money to take a very
safe and profitable shot at this year's Derby Future Pool #1.
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