I'm In

OK so I'm in at the TBA - not "Too Be Announced," but the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance. I'm not sure what this says about the group - allowing me in that is - but I'm happy to be aboard.

Sorry I haven't posted lately. Blame it on the late nights watching the Celtics - ugh - and the close of another the school year. (When I'm not handicapping or blogging I'm a public school principal.) Now that the Celtics are toast and tomorrow will be my last day of school, I'll be geared up from the first day of summer to the close of Saratoga.

In the works is a video I'm putting together on Saratoga. I hope to have it up before the opening day at the Spa. I'll be on the back lawn for this year's opening...anyone else going to be there???

Finally, Happy Father's Day to all the dads out there! And thanks again for allowing me to join the group.

Triple Crown Reflections

• Super Saver gets super ride
• Best betting angle - rider changes
• Once again possibly the best horse - Eskendereya like Quality Road - sidelined before Derby Day
• Huge exotic payouts through Triple Crown cards
• Belmont to Travers victory for Drosselmeyer?
• Lookin at Lucky has the inside track for best three-year-old
• Borel approaching folk hero status at Churchill and beyond
• Firsts for good guys - Smith and Mott and newcomer Garica
• Back to the reality of finding a winner from $35,000 claimers on Pick 3 and 4 tickets

Belmont Stakes on the Cheap

• Here's my take on the Belmont Stakes and the five other stakes races on the card with some very affordable and quite hittable multi-race wagers.

Race 6 Woody Stephens Stakes, 7 furlongs for 3 YOs

• A compact but fairly talented field here. For me it comes down simply to the horse I believe is the fastest - Eightyfiveinafifty. Take away the Churchill mud and the bizarre Whirlaway Stakes in which his bridle broke and he ran off the track, and he's run two triple-digit Beyer scores. While D'Funnybone is 3-for-3 at the tricky, 7 furlong distance and doesn't need the lead, Eightfiveinafifty may force his hand to go along at a rapid pace - one that he may not be able to keep up with. Derby entrant, Discreetly Mine, is the wild card.

Race 7 Just a Game, 1 mile turf for fillies and mares

• Another compact field with a few stand outs...Speak Easy Gal is the price play at 7-2, if there is such a thing. Castellano, who excels on the turf, will likely play catch-me-if-you-can with a loose lead. Proviso, a two-time Grade I winner and against the boys no less in her last. Must respect. Phola has won three straight in going from allowance to grade three to grade two company with rising Beyers in each, which makes her tough to ignore.

Race 8 True North Handicap, 6 furlongs for older males

• A crowded field that can be pared down to three contenders. Custom for Carlos brings his A-game just about every time and excels at this sprint distance. Strasbourg is an X-factor moving way up to Grade II company coming off a tough allowance loss at a mile. Trainer Albertrani wins at just about 25% second off a mid-layoff and you'll get at least double digit odds for this $450,000 purchase out of champion Friends Lake. Checklist rounds out the top three coming off a triple-digit score and a short rest. He'll either win by 10 lengths or lose by 25.

Race 9 Acorn, 1 mile for 3YO fillies

• Really no standout in this division, so just about everyone is live here, but let me try to narrow it down to a little. Tanda goes from synthetic to dirt and west to east here, but owns the last two highest Beyers. Hollywood strip plays like dirt and trainer Dan Hendricks isn't bringing her all this way for nothing. While Seeking the Title dropped her rider during the Black Eyed Susan Stakes, she should not be faulted for this and Desormeaux comes right back to ride. Streaker from the powerful Phipps Stable has every right to improve off two, single-turn wins at Gulfstream and Belmont and could pass class test with flying colors. Not sure what to do with either Amen Hallelujah or Quiet Temper - both are inconsistent while showing flashes of brilliance. With blinkers on, Indian Burn should be included for deep tickets.

Race 10, Manhattan Handicap, 1 1/4 miles turf for older runners

• Either everyone is in here or everyone is out except for one. I'm going with just the one because 11 entries are just too many to play. Gio Ponti, older turf champion, has yet to score this year, but has run two sneaky good races. He loves Belmont, winning and $3.5 million in the bank is enough for me to single here.

Race 11, Belmont Stakes, 1 1/2 miles for 3YOs

• No Derby or Preakness winners here, so a big evenly-matched field goes forward. I can see a case to be made for every hopeful except Dave in Dixie - overmatched, Stately Victor - overrated and Uptowncharlybrown - poorly breed for such a distance. I've been trying to get it down to less than four choices and if I could only pick one, it would be First Dude. He's the most likely candidate to go coast-to-coast ripping off 24 and change quarters along the way. Fly Down showed a great turn of foot in Dwyer and is most likely to inherit a lead at the top of the lane. Spangled Star has the breeding to get the job done and nothing else. Worth some sort of play at 30-1 or greater. Trying to like Ice Box, Drosslemeyer and Make Music for Me, but at this time will probably include the chalk, Ice Box, just in case.

The Picks:

• Pick 3 (Races 6-9) - a cheap pay looking for $50 plus return: 1-5/1-3-5/2-8 for $8
• Pick 6 - an affordable triple single play 1/1-3/2/2-4-5/1/2-5-6-11 for $48
• Pick 4 (Races 8-11) affordable with big payoff potential 2-4-8/2-4-5-11/1/2-5-11 for $36

Good luck with all your Belmont Day wagers!

Early Scratches Changes to Wagers

• Pick 3 (Races 6-9) 1-5/1-3/3-6-7-8-9 for $20
• Pick 6 1/1-3/6-8/2-4-5/1/5-11 for $48
• Pick 4 (Races 8-11) 3-6-8/2-4-6-8/1/2-5-11 $36

Preakness Pick

My father was fond of saying, "Don't make an easy job hard." Soooooo....my Preakness pick is Super Saver. Here's why:

• While his critics will be picking against him, say Calvin Borel led Super Saver through a perfect trip for the Derby, which made winning it easy, many horses get perfect trips and fail.
• Derby winners have great success on Preakness day.
• Here's where Pletcher and just about every other trainer's lightly raced schedule pays dividends - Super Saver will race for only the fourth time this calendar year.
• Finally, Borel gets to pick and choose how he wants to go - if others go for the lead he can lay back, if no one goes for the front Super Saver has enough speed to win on the front end.

Really 5-2 would be a gift on Super Saver. I'll be playing him to win and placing him on top in exacta, trifecta and superfecta wheels. My spread will not be as wide, but I will offer myself just a bit of protection.

Preakness bets:

$10 exacta 8-12 - I like Dublin to step way up with Gomez aboard

$1 trifecta wheel 7-8/1-7-8-12/1-5-6-7-10-12 for $28 for a little protection in case it was the rider and not the horse in Lookin at Lucky's case

$1 superfecta wheel 8/1-7-12/1-5-6-7-10-12/2-5-6-9 for a $54 superfecta stab....

Good luck with all your Preakness wagers

Movin' On Up

Here's two horses to consider in your Preakness bets off of less than stellar performances on Derby Day:

• Garret Gomez, much maligned for his last two rides aboard Lookin at Lucky, gets aboard Dublin for the first time on Saturday. Gomez is much better suited to Dublin's late running style. D. Wayne Lukas' top runner moves up considerably based on this rider change and goes into my Preakness exacta and trifecta bets.
• Jackson Bend simply got lost among the Derby throng. In a shorter field with an uncertain pace picture, he'll be much closer up and may either find himself loose-on-the-lead or tracking just off of Paddy O'Prado or whoever else wants the front.

Listed at 10-1 and 12-1 on the morning line, here are the most likely long shot candidates to hit the board. Bet on it!

One Step Up and One Step Back

Let's start with the step back...

I am pleased with my Derby handicapping. I targeted seven of the 20 horses to bet with Super Saver as my top choice. In addition, I had a $1 exacta wheel totaling $12 which paid out around $76. Not even close to Turk-like payouts, but I at least go my money back on all my Derby wagers.

As usual my handicapping outweighed my actual betting. In retrospect, I simply overspread my bets. If I had stayed with my top three choices - Super Saver, Ice Box and Paddy O'Prado - I would have hit the trifecta for sure. I had included Make Music for Me in some additional double and underneath wagers, so if only...but really such 20-20 betting is for losers.

Now a quick look forward...

Last year Rachel Alexandra beat the boys after skipping the Derby. While there have been other fresh faces who have worn a blanket of black-eyed Susans most Preakness success comes from running first in the Derby. For this reason I suggest either a five-horse exacta box ($20 for each dollar bet) made up of Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky, Dublin, Paddy O'Prado and Jackson Bend. If you're feeling a little lucky I'd further suggest a Super Saver over the rest of the Dery gang over the rest of the Derby gang plus Schoolyard Dreams, Caracortado and Yawanna Twist for $24 for each $1.

Just a few thoughts before the middle child of the Triple Crown trail.

How About a Hurricane Inspired Pick 4

Here's a last minute, all stakes Pick 4...

Humana Distaff:

Dr. Zinc - traveling too well of late to ignore

Warbling - big Beyer in last slop-run and 8-1

Informed Decision - in case she comes back to prior form

Cassidys Pride - huge step up and huge wet pedigree number, why not

Churchill Downs:

Country Day - another whose stock has gone up in slop - two 100 Beyers - and 15-1

Kensei - second off layoff for grade II winner

Musket Man - tough customer and held well in last year's sloppy Derby

Turf Classic - on the turf, off the turf, running on a bog???

Blues Street - gets the call for the single because I'll need lots of luck to get this far through the hail storms and he's raced well on all kinds of wet grass

Derby:

Lookin At Lucky - best of the field may overcome post for win

Super Saver - track and slop success should not be discounted

Awesome Act - don't like him, but something tells me I need to include him at least on one bet

The play for $1: 1-2-3-7/2-11-12/7/1-4-16 for $36