Friday, March 5, 2010

All Turf Pick 4

Now here's a play worth making - the all turf Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park on Saturday. Let's simply get to it:

Race 7, Herecomesthebride, Grade III at 1 1/8 miles

I'm steering clear of favorites right off the bat. Neither the first, second or fourth place finishers from the Coconut Grove make my ticket. Instead I am making the fifth place finisher my top choice here. Upperline finished less than two lengths from long shot 'Grove winner In the Rough while making up the most ground in the stretch. Here Upperline gets another 1/16 of a mile to work with as well as getting a positive jock switch to Castellano. Well-bred and inexperienced fillies Apple Charlotte and Dynazaper also go on the ticket just in case they run up to their breeding today.

Race 8, OC 62k/N2X at 1 1/16 miles

OK so you need a single in a turf race - good luck! And really most of my published singles have been stinkers of late...but I carry on nonetheless. While it took Uncle Indy ten tries to break his maiden, it appears the six-year-old finally got the hang of things last year and simply ran into trouble in his last race and 2010 debut at Gulfstream. Breeding, pace, trip and trainer/jock numbers are too overwhelming to ignore. He'll even get a pace to run at from his good inside post, which makes it easier to swallow a chalky single in a turf route. C'mon Uncle Indy!

Race 9, Palm Beach, Grade III at 1 1/8 miles

Man, if you watched the Hallandale Beach a few weeks back and are not a fan of Bim Bam, I'm surprised. While headed in the lane by well-regarded and possible Derby contender Interactif, Bim Bam stuck his head right back in and out fought Interactif to the wire in dramatic fashion. I had the exacta box and cheered mightily as Bim Bam gave me 2x what I would have won had the finish been reversed! Much traveled Dean's Kitten and inexperienced Center Drive back up Bim Bam in case he bounces off such a hard race.

Race 10, Maiden Sp Wt 45k at 1 1/16 miles

Let's close out with four choices in a wide open race. Seriously folks in this kind of race I look to positive trainer results and they are not hard to find here. Pletcher wins at 14% clip for horses debuting over a mile - really that's unheard of so Paseo Alegro gets in. Once Hurricane Day figured things out heading towards home in his debut five weeks ago, he really ran on late. A small step forward and he's a winner. Mystic figures to be double-digit odds for Mott/Desormeaux, which is something you just don't see. Truly capable of waking up in turf debut despite lousy dirt form. Finally Beau Choix seems to be the class of this field, so I'll put him on as insurance.

There's quite a bit of chalk on the ticket, but if my handicapping is right in the first leg and I get just one more upset in legs three or four, I could finally have a decent Pick 4 payout.

The play for 50 cents: 6-7-9/3/2-6-7/3-4-8-10 for $18. Good luck with your plays!


  1. That all turf pick 4 was a tough nut to crack today. Very gutsy to give it a shot; I steered clear myself. But a payout of almost $16K definitely made it worth the effort.

  2. Dude,
    Because it was so tough - I backed down to an $8 play - figuring, if I had it I had it - which we know I did not.

    Did you sign up for Derby Dreamer fantasy contest? It's worth it. Right now I'm in 86th place out of over a thousand stables. First place this month is $10,000 and tickets to the Derby.

  3. As a matter of fact, I just signed up Thursday. I think I'm in 93rd (Nick Papagiorgio's Walter Sobchak Stables) so I'm on your heels. Of course, most of the horses in my stable ran yesterday so I don't know how I'll do the rest of the month.

  4. I'm Hollywood Hawk Bada Bing Stables and noticed I dropped to 145, but I still have three or four going next week and about three going on Florida Derby Day.