Friday, March 19, 2010

Rule Will Rule On Saturday

Sure Rule is facing a bunch of newcomers in Saturday's Grade I Florida Derby, but really at 5-2 he's an underlay.

Can one of the several freshly minted maiden breakers or N1X Allowance types rise up and defeat Rule? Sure, as we all learned or were reminded with Mine That Bird last year, three-year-olds can certainly improve by leaps and bounds between starts. Rule is also vulnerable, if his connections decide to change his running tactics and have him rate off the pace - as I suspect will happen. Many horses simple resist or burn so much energy fighting a jock trying to restrain their front-running nature that they crash and burn. If Rule does toss his head about and cave anyone of number of double-digit types can win. I'm betting against such a scenario. Here's why...

Rule's got the breeding, the connections (yes, Pletcher will win a Derby someday), the talent and a winning streak that tells me Rule is a great win bet at odds of 8-5 or greater.


  1. Tony,
    I'll let Rule beat me at a short price. I can't see him being able to settle in out front and slow down the pace like he's done the past several races. And how will he fare when the other jocks prompt the pace or try to lead early? Dunno. And if the other jocks let Rule just go out there and gallop along until the quarter pole like he's been doing, they'll screw their chances at winning (and mine too i guess).

  2. Tony,

    Do you think RULE will just outrun these from the bell or will they try to use this as a G.1 teaching tool to rate/finish?

    Good performances (2nd or 3rd) by RULE and RADIOHEAD will set them up very nicely for the Derby...they're the only ones in the Florida Derby with the foundation I like to see for the demanding test of champions.

    I'm hoping SOARING EMPIRE does his best PLEASANT HOME impression (well bred LS BC Distaff winner for her first and only G.1 win) and flies to the wire and into the Derby contender conversation.

    Enjoy the day!

  3. Gentlemen,

    I think Rule's connections blew it by not giving him a chance to rate. He has the earnings to get into the Derby and would have lost nothing at trying to make a move off the pace. Maybe this will give me some bigger odds on Derby Day? Or maybe I'm forced off Rule's bandwagon?

  4. Tony,
    Two observations from Rule's FL Derby: 1) he endured the pace pressure through quick fractions and finished a respectable third when many of his competitors were dying in the stretch; and 2) he needs an easy lead to get the distance - which seems unlikely given the running style of the other Derby prospects.

    So given that, it woulda been nice to see a change in tactics to rate off the pace. If he did that, he'd deserve serious consideration.

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  6. I agree with the “theme” sentiment here; they should tried to get Rule to rate off the pace in the Florida Derby, he has plenty of earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby so there was nothing to risk by trying something new.