Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Derby Baker's Dozen for March

Lookin At Lucky – Take a look at the 1989 Preakness, in which Pat Day aboard Easy Goer forces Pat Valenzuela and Sunday Silence into a most uncomfortable and almost catastrophic racing spot. It’s almost the same exact move Dublin’s rider, Corey Nakatani, made on Garret Gomez aboard Lookin At Lucky in the Rebel. Both Sunday Silence and Lookin At Lucky averted disaster and won with class in the tightest of photo finishes. Spectacular!

Eskendereya – the lion-in-waiting will do his thing a few weeks from now at the Big A

Sidney’s Candy – fake stuff form and speed impressive – distance and dirt questions remain

Interactif – does nothing but try hard each time out and grinders like him usually hit the Kentucky Derby board

Rule – my main Derby colt currently in a holding pattern over where to go: Florida, Sunland or Wood

Dublin – two bad trips in a row in small fields does not boost Derby confidence

Caracortado – exposed or just bounced in San Felipe loss; Santa Anita Derby and answers await

Discreetly Mine – either speed ball with enough endurance to last or merry-go-round winner that won’t take the pace pressure

Conveyance – Sunland is the right spot for this sprinter trying to outrace his breeding

D'Funnybone – with Eskendereya going to Wood this guy probably gets big shot in Florida Derby

Jackson Bend – simply getting off Gulfstream’s landing strip-like, front-runner favoring surface (how many horses get passed in the stretch in Hallandale???) may improve his performance

Super Saver – did enough to move forward off long layoff and has enough graded purse money to get into Derby starting gate; Dominguez ride didn’t help


  1. Tony, that was a great segment by Jim McKay on the '87 Preakness. The head on from the backstretch showed that maybe Pat Day was right and P Val tried to force him wide ever so slightly. Would like to see the backstretch head on from the Rebel.

    I'm guessing the jock switch to Nakatani on Dublin didn't have the desired effect.

    One more thing, i know it's early, but with all the early speed likely to go in the Derby, things are looking good for the one run closers.

  2. Tony,

    Do you really feel D'FUNNYBONE has a look in the Florida Derby? I've got the feeling that RULE will show up there considering timing from the Sam F. Davis win to Saturday's race and ESKDENDEREYA going in the Wood Memorial. Those two speedsters could compromise each other's chances. I truly hope D'FUNNYBONE goes in the Swale S. for my Road to the Roses stable "gimme" of the weekend.

    As for LOOKIN AT LUCKY, I hope that he won't suffer from ill effects caused by that stumble that alomst caused both horse and rider to go down. He's the desrving Derby favorite at this point off that brave effort.

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  4. Opps... deleted my own comments...way too tired


    We may be thinking along the same lines but I would call them "stalkers" within a handful of lengths of front by the top of the stretch that usually come home the winners on Derby Day. Closers from way back are usually good for second and third money - Street Sense and Mine That Bird not withstanding...


    Wrong again I am....

  5. Hi Tony,

    I tried to comment a couple days ago but I've been having some ID errors so here goes...

    Lookin At Lucky in the #1 spot! I'm very glad to see so many people giving him respect recently, he's really going to get rolling next out according to Bob Baffert.
    I like that you kept D'Funnybone on your list. The only race he ever lost was the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Dutrow says it was because he disliked the synthetics.
    Also liking Jackson Bend and Discreetly Mine on your list, they both have very strong 2 year old foundation to fall back on.