Sunday, May 24, 2009

Met Mile Day Pick 4

Here's why: big fields + three turf races + a contentious stakes race= big payout. If only I could hit it. 

Here's the strategy:

Leg 1 (conditional claiming turf sprint): These races always call for a spread and usually come up with a longshot on top. Here are mine: 
  • Lemon Shore - second off layoff with little success of late, but two wins at distance, surface and track (8-1)
  • Day Dee - Although not a sprinter an angle I like to play, route horse usually ahead at the six furlong marker. I don't care that he's jumping up in class...(9-2)
  • Snowstalker - first time lasix, second off layoff (3-1)
  • Others I considered but may dismiss or include: Marq of Love - one hole will force him to go and Edloktori - new track, distance and rider may be too much to overcome
Leg 2 (N1X - statebreds - yikes): Favorites usually don't win these, but this field is crying out for a short price winner and I'll go with:
  • Relatively Ready - was when he ran into/caused a bid of trouble in his first start in five months. Previously stakes-placed he should win this (5-2)
  • Straight Story  - with no real speed in this race this one-time turf winner could take them all the way around (3-1)
  • Considered - Magical Devotion interfered with by top choice in last and Piazza Di Spagna who always seems to rally for just a piece
Leg 3 Met Mile Grade I: Premiere event for horsemen, especially in the breeding shed. This year's race has a lot of speed even with Mr. Fantasy scratched out. For this reason I'm going with a group of stalkers:
  • Smooth Air - Multiple stakes-winner from seven furlongs to 1 1/8 miles, including a listed race on turf, he's very versatile. He'll have Acrredit to track from his inside and should get a great trip. I even considered singling him (4-1)
  • The Roundhouse - A lightly raced Pletcher colt who missed all of last year, but is stakes-placed at 2 and 4. Second off for suddenly hot Pletcher (12-1)
  • Mr. Sidney - Another lightly raced one who won Grade I on the turf in last and just might have the same versatility of the top choice (10-1)
  • Others considered: None
Leg 4 (conditional claiming turf going 1 1/16 miles): Several question marks in this one, but I'll go with these three - if AE #13 gets in:
  • Manitowish Waters - Two consistent turf races at Gulfstream before dull effort on poly at Keenland. Lots of upside for the chalk (2-1)
  • High On Candy - Will press top pick and could get the better of him, if not so ready (10-1)
  • Chinese Whisper - Yet to find winner's circle on this side of Atlantic, but has faced much better (4-1)
  • E Z Dollar - Only if Chinese Whisper doesn't get in (5-1)
The Pick 4 play looks like this:
  • The cheapo: 7-9-11/2/2-6-8/4-8-13 for $27
  • Middle ground: 7-9-11/2-3-6/2-8/4-8 for $36
  • Grande: 4-7-9-11/2-3-6/2-6/4-8-13 or 3 for $72
Earlier this week a Pick 4 with two chalks, 10-1 and 12-1 shots paid more than a grand for a $1, I see the same type of payout for Monday.

No comments:

Post a Comment