Saturday, February 13, 2010

Another Try at the 50-Cent Pick 4

First let's recap: Two weeks ago only had three out of four; last week I wimped out and played an el cheapo Pick 3 and backed into a $15 payout with help of a DQ. This week it looks the late Pick 4 at Gulfstream looks pretty playable with a better than average return - that is if I'm right.

Race 7, Grade III Hurricane Bertie at 6 1/2 furlongs
  • I'm going to get aggressive here and single the first leg. I'm expecting to get less than the 6-1 morning line on Tar Heel Mom. Going the extra 1/2 furlong from the far outside post will suit her as she doesn't necessarily need the lead. In addition, she has several just inside of her looking to close, leaving the two- or three-path there for the taking. The only other fillies I see threatening for the lead and maybe enticing my choice into a deadly speed duel are Dr. Zic - stepping way up in class and Kays and Jays - who I'm not sure fits in here and looks to be overplayed.
Race 8, N1X 1 mile on the turf
  • No standout here, so lots of choices will probably fall between 4-1 to 6-1. I'll place my backing on two of these...Cruisin'nbridle and Salsa Star. Sometimes I need to remind myself to just keep it simple. Cruisin'nbridle's trainer, Michael Maker wins at a 25% clip overall, at the current meet, off the layoff and with Dominguez in the saddle. Hard to overlook. Salsa Star may get overlooked with Jeremy Rose piloting and breaking from the 11-post. Salsa Star exits the same race probable favorite Toocleverforwords, the difference is where they break (1 vs. 11), odds (2-1 vs. 8-1) and pace (pressing vs. loose on the lead). All this points me towards Salsa Star since he may win just as next time out winner Tottie did - gate-to-wire. While writing this all out, I'm thinking she just may be the real single here.
Race 9, Grade II GP Sprint Championship at 7 furlong
  • It's not that I don't like Munnings, actually I do like him a lot. I saw him break his maiden at Saratoga when he looked all of his $1.7 million price tag. I'll include him in the wager, but fear there's not much pace to run at. For that reason I'll include any one of three that could go gate-to-wire: Inkado at a huge price; Solar Flare who is good and sometimes great and oft-injuried Biker Boy. Of course all three going for the lead, opens the door for Motovato or Munnings.
Race 10, Clm $30,000 N3L, 1 mile on the turf
  • No matter how hard I try I can't get this race down to less than three choices and they are: Copper Cascade is second off a layoff and has been around the wire in three of his last four starts. D'Wildcard goes first out for Wayne Catalano who scores at 29% for first-out starters - hard to ignore. Cozzene's Destiny trainer is hot (with 10 out of 11 starters finishing first or second at current Gulfstream meet) - even harder to ignore.
The 50-Cent Play: 10/5-11/1-3-4-5-8/4-5-6 for $15

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