Friday, February 26, 2010

Gulfstream Pick 4, Take 4

This is my fourth stab at Gulfstream's, 50-cent minimum Late Pick 4. The best I've mustered is two, three-out-four scenarios. Let's see if I can get off the snide today.

Race 7, Grade III Sabin at 1 mile
  • Single, pure and simple - Justwhistledixie. If you get 5-2 consider it a gift. By far the class of the field with her two biggest stakes wins coming right here at Gulfstream last year. The only graded stakes winner on dirt in the field will get a pace to run into from a likely rail stalking, ground saving trip.
Race 8, Grade II Davona Dale at 1 mile
  • The only knock against singling Bickersons is that she may have run too big a race in her last to duplicate another such effort. Her Grade II Forward Gal win at seven furlongs was dominating and never in doubt. If she runs anything close to that one again, forgetatabout. No other filly comes close to Bickersons on pure speed numbers, but Sassy Image may improve enough to catch the chalk if she falters. Trainer Dale Romans is winning at a 25% clip and Sassy Image pulled away from a small field in her last over the Gulfstream slop.
Race 9, Grade III Very One at 1 3/8 miles on the turf
  • Since none of these fillies or mares have won at this demanding distance and the late charging favorite Lady Shakespeare is parked all the way out on the 14 post, why not take a few shots?I'm taking two, double-digit fillies coming out a 1 7/16 turf race earlier this month. Both Kiawah Cat and Proud Lisa ran well coming over four month layoffs. The two finished within a length of each other tracking a very slow pace in the marathon allowance. I liked Cable in her last start enough to include her in my vertical wagers. In that race she was getting to a loose on the lead winner and will get two additional furlongs for her closing bid.
Race 10, Maiden $35,000 claimer, 1 1/16 miles on turf
  • What, at first, looks like an impossible condition to finish the Pick 4 is a race that really isn't that hard to handicap. From The Keep It Simple Stupid Department: Michael Maker is 29% first off the claim the last two years and has Tigresco going under that condition here. Enough said. In a seemingly paceless race, Smart Selection goes second time with blinkers and went the fastest of five workouts on February 19, so he may get a lead that he won't relinquish. For kicks and giggles why not toss in Charismaticspring at 20-1 or better just in case he runs back to his May 2, 2009 form - the last time he was on the turf and finished an OK third.
The play for 50 cents: 1/4-8/1-5-12/2-9-11 for $9. Good luck with your plays!

No comments:

Post a Comment