Sunday, February 14, 2010

Derby Future Pool Number 1

OK only a few hours left on Derby Pool Number 1. If you have a few bucks in Internet wagering account like TVG, HRTV, Twinspires, etc. here's the best bets according to me:
  • If you think you have the Southwest winner or a horse that will show some talent in tomorrow's Oaklawn feature then bet him with both fists before tonight's 7:00 pm deadline. I like Dublin. I saw him break his maiden at Saratoga and watched his late, winning move in the Hopeful. He's got the goods and if he runs on this spring - 20-1 is a gift.
  • Jackson Bend is an oft-raced horse (seven starts so far) who tends to grind away toward the finish line. Moved forward in his second-place Holy Bull finish while racing first time for Nick Zito. Seems to get no respect and 25-1, is an underlay right now.
  • 25-1 on Rule, really? Didn't anyone see yesterday's race - made the pace, took on two different challenges and pulled away through Tampa's deep, sandy stretch. He's in the Derby with graded earnings to spare, so if he's healthy, gets his grade one win (as trainer Todd Pletcher plans) and enters Churhill's starting gate on May 1, he'll be south of 5-1 on the odds board.
  • The best play I see on the board is Maximus Ruler at 80-1. In his third start, first off a two-month layoff, he made all the pace under constant pressure and did well to hold second in the LeComte Stakes at the Fair Grounds. He's got a Churchill win under his belt, his connections are not well know, so if he makes it to the Derby he'll probably be long odds...but not 80-1!
  • Lookin At Lucky is a deep overlay at 7-1. He's big and has lots of guts, but no dirt experience is still a problem for me. It also looks like he'll be facing far less on the Left Coast, as many California connections are sending their charges east to run on the real Earth.
Call me crazy, but I think this year's Derby will not be All Other Three-Year-Olds. This year's winner comes from off this board, period.

No comments:

Post a Comment