Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Big Derby Prep Weekend Coming Up

The real running for the Kentucky Derby starts this weekend with:
  • The rain-delayed Grade II Robert Lewis at Santa Anita
  • Grade III Sam F. Davis at Tampa
  • Oaklawn's Grade III Southwest
Of the three races the Southwest holds the most intrigue with three defectors from the Left Coast coming aboard (Conveyance, Cardiff Giant and Domonation), last year's Hopeful winner, Dublin, Smarty Jones Stakes winner, Dryfly and an impressive maiden winner from the Big A, Moojab. Among the questions waiting answers:
  • Can the top three from the San Rafael duplicate their form?
  • Will Conveyance and/or Dryfly be able to cover the 1 mile distance together?
  • Is Dublin back to his Saratoga form following surgery?
Both the Lewis and Davis look like two-horse races. American Lion (thanks for the correction Amateurcapper) and Tiz Chrome at Santa Anita and Uptowncharlybrown and Rule at Tampa.

A few more pieces to the Derby puzzle will come into place this weekend...maybe? It should be fun watching.

1 comment:

  1. Tony BB,

    No Lookin at Lucky in the Lewis, American Lion will be Tiz Chrome's co-favorite.

    Lewis: Condition questions w/ top choices, extra week helps American Lion get fitter while Tiz Chrome will have an easier pace situation than if it had been run last week.

    Davis: Agree, looks chalky, but Uptown still a route ? while Rule a course and fitness ?. I like MIDDLE OF THE NITE in a mild upset of course horse UPTOWN, RULE 3rd.

    Southwest: This will be the most compelling race of the three...west coast in the house, on a tiring dirt where the synthetic preparation should help. DUBLIN wins or runs up the track. DOMONATION plods along for 2nd or 3rd picking up tiring speed. CARDIFF GIANT tracks from 3rd/pounces while CONVEYANCE faces a legit pace threat in DRYFLY. Cal-bred in the upset a la SIERRA SUNSET a few years back, love the all-Cali tri you suggested.