Best Bets based upon odds + likelihood of winning + greater value now vs. Derby Day
American Lion - a good finish in next start gets you a for real contender
Dublin - a win in either Rebel and/or Arkansas Derby and you'll get 5-1 less on May 1
Jackson Bend - a New York state of mind may be just what this grinder needs
Rule - best bet, period
Sidney's Candy - best prospect coming from the fake stuff
Not worth it
Conveyance - 10 furlongs just too long
Dave in Dixie - too much to prove in too short a time
Odysseus - a true hedge fund, did nothing and absolutely plummeted from morning line
Vale of York - could easily have been 140-1 off his debut
Wait until Derby Day
Buddy's Saint - may bounce back, although I doubt it
Eskendereya - could be 5-1 in the Churchill gate, so why bother
Lookin at Lucky - with a misstep here or there he'll be around 10-1 anyway
Noble's Promise - c'mon 25-1 off a good showing on BC day four months ago
For the record - small win bets on Rule and Sidney's Candy
Tony,
ReplyDeleteBoth of your futures are on front runners, w/ SIDNEY'S CANDY not even experienced around two turns. In fact, four of the five choices are on-pace types. Please, help the amateur understand your theories! Dublin, American Lion, and Jackson Bend were all analyzed in my post-Future Wager offering...stop by if you have the chance.
I'm actually quite high on Odysseus right now, I loved the way he won last out, it was a true tour-de-force in the easiest use of the term. He might not be ready to win the Derby, but I’m really looking forward to his next prep to see if he can step up his game.
ReplyDeleteI think Dave In Dixie is on the improve but still won’t be able to catch Caracortado in the San Felipe.
Noble's Promise isn't 25-1 off a good showing in just the Breeders' Cup, he also ran a great race to finish 3/4's of a length behind Lookin at Lucky in the CashCall Futurity.
Thanks for stopping by and thanks for the correction. I noticed it after I put it up, and I figured someone would point it out. Nothing worse than lazy commentary...
ReplyDeleteHi Tony,
ReplyDeleteI gave a whole big spiel on Noble's Promise on a blog last week and submitted it before realizing that I used Vale Of York's name instead of Noble's Promise so I understand! (:
Thanks for stopping by my blog, "meeting" new bloggers and horse racing enthusiasts is always great.